Westpac IQ
Commodities Update February 2026
February 17 2026 • 7 mins
Commodities entered 2026 with strong momentum, with Westpac’s broad index up almost 11% since December and gains widespread across metals and energy, led by gold. We have upgraded our end‑2026 outlook materially, lifting forecasts for gold, copper, nickel and oil, leaving our broad commodities index around 16% higher than in our December publication. Looking ahead, gold remains the standout, base metals are well‑supported but range‑bound, iron ore faces renewed downside, and energy markets remain firm near term but capped by rising supply and softer global growth.
By
Justin Smirk
Senior Economist
- Luci Ellis Luci Ellis
- Martin Whetton Martin Whetton
- Robert Rennie Robert Rennie
- Elliot Clarke Elliot Clarke
- Matthew Hassan Matthew Hassan
- Justin Smirk Justin Smirk
- Mantas Vanagas Mantas Vanagas
- Kelly Eckhold Kelly Eckhold
- Damien McColough Damien McColough
- Jameson Coombs Jameson Coombs
- See all authors See all authors
20
{"topicSelector":[{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aud","name":"aud","description":"","title":"AUD","url":"/topic.aud"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/interestrates","name":"interestrates","description":"","title":"Interest rates","url":"/topic.interestrates"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/usd","name":"usd","description":"","title":"USD","url":"/topic.usd"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzd","name":"nzd","description":"","title":"NZD","url":"/topic.nzd"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/australia","name":"australia","description":"","title":"Australia","url":"/topic.australia"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/newzealand","name":"newzealand","description":"","title":"New Zealand","url":"/topic.newzealand"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rates","name":"rates","description":"","title":"Rates","url":"/topic.rates"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/credit","name":"credit","description":"","title":"Credit","url":"/topic.credit"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/acgb","name":"acgb","description":"","title":"ACGB","url":"/topic.acgb"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/commodities","name":"commodities","description":"","title":"Commodities","url":"/topic.commodities"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rba","name":"rba","description":"","title":"RBA","url":"/topic.rba"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/jpy","name":"jpy","title":"JPY","url":"/topic.jpy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/inflation","name":"inflation","description":"","title":"Inflation","url":"/topic.inflation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/abs","name":"abs","description":"","title":"ABS","url":"/topic.abs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/yieldcurve","name":"yieldcurve","description":"","title":"Yield curve","url":"/topic.yieldcurve"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ustreasury","name":"ustreasury","description":"","title":"US Treasury UST","url":"/topic.ustreasury"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/eur","name":"eur","description":"","title":"EUR","url":"/topic.eur"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fx","name":"fx","description":"","title":"FX","url":"/topic.fx"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ois","name":"ois","description":"","title":"OIS","url":"/topic.ois"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/semigovernment","name":"semigovernment","description":"","title":"Semi government","url":"/topic.semigovernment"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rbnz","name":"rbnz","description":"","title":"RBNZ","url":"/topic.rbnz"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/podcast","name":"podcast","description":"","title":"Podcast","url":"/topic.podcast"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/gbp","name":"gbp","description":"","title":"GBP","url":"/topic.gbp"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/basis","name":"basis","description":"","title":"Basis","url":"/topic.basis"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/whatspricedin","name":"whatspricedin","description":"","title":"What\u0027s priced in","url":"/topic.whatspricedin"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nz","name":"nz","description":"","title":"NZ","url":"/topic.nz"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/us","name":"us","description":"","title":"US","url":"/topic.us"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/macro","name":"macro","description":"","title":"Macro","url":"/topic.macro"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/forecasts","name":"forecasts","description":"","title":"Forecasts","url":"/topic.forecasts"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fomc","name":"fomc","description":"","title":"Federal Reserve FOMC","url":"/topic.fomc"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/crossmarket","name":"crossmarket","description":"","title":"Cross market","url":"/topic.crossmarket"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/europe","name":"europe","description":"","title":"Europe","url":"/topic.europe"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/bonds","name":"bonds","description":"","title":"Bonds","url":"/topic.bonds"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/morningreport","name":"morningreport","description":"","title":"Morning Report","url":"/topic.morningreport"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/crosscurrencyxccy","name":"crosscurrencyxccy","description":"","title":"Cross currency XCCY","url":"/topic.crosscurrencyxccy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ecb","name":"ecb","description":"","title":"European central bank ECB","url":"/topic.ecb"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/housing","name":"housing","description":"","title":"Housing","url":"/topic.housing"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/bbsw","name":"bbsw","description":"","title":"BBSW","url":"/topic.bbsw"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/uk","name":"uk","description":"","title":"UK","url":"/topic.uk"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/china","name":"china","description":"","title":"China","url":"/topic.china"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/chartpacks","name":"chartpacks","description":"","title":"Chart packs","url":"/topic.chartpacks"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/consumer","name":"consumer","description":"","title":"Consumer","url":"/topic.consumer"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ironore","name":"ironore","description":"","title":"Iron ore","url":"/topic.ironore"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/retail","name":"retail","description":"","title":"Retail","url":"/topic.retail"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/antipodeandaily","name":"antipodeandaily","description":"","title":"Antipodean Daily","url":"/topic.antipodeandaily"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/securitisation","name":"securitisation","description":"","title":"Securitisation","url":"/topic.securitisation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/employment","name":"employment","description":"","title":"Employment","url":"/topic.employment"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rmbs","name":"rmbs","description":"","title":"RMBS","url":"/topic.rmbs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cmbs","name":"cmbs","description":"","title":"CMBS","url":"/topic.cmbs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/labour","name":"labour","description":"","title":"Labour","url":"/topic.labour"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/consumersentiment","name":"consumersentiment","description":"","title":"Consumer Sentiment","url":"/topic.consumersentiment"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/boj","name":"boj","description":"","title":"BOJ","url":"/topic.boj"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cliffnotes","name":"cliffnotes","description":"","title":"Cliff notes","url":"/topic.cliffnotes"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/gdp","name":"gdp","description":"","title":"GDP","url":"/topic.gdp"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/construction","name":"construction","description":"","title":"Construction","url":"/topic.construction"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/japan","name":"japan","description":"","title":"Japan","url":"/topic.japan"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/trade","name":"trade","description":"","title":"Trade","url":"/topic.trade"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/houseprices","name":"houseprices","description":"","title":"House prices","url":"/topic.houseprices"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cny","name":"cny","description":"","title":"CNY","url":"/topic.cny"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/businessconditions","name":"businessconditions","description":"","title":"Business conditions","url":"/topic.businessconditions"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/esg","name":"esg","description":"","title":"ESG","url":"/topic.esg"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cad","name":"cad","description":"","title":"CAD","url":"/topic.cad"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/oil","name":"oil","title":"Oil","url":"/topic.oil"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/coal","name":"coal","description":"","title":"Coal","url":"/topic.coal"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/boe","name":"boe","description":"","title":"BOE","url":"/topic.boe"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/pboc","name":"pboc","description":"","title":"PBOC","url":"/topic.pboc"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/canada","name":"canada","description":"","title":"Canada","url":"/topic.canada"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cardtracker","name":"cardtracker","description":"","title":"Card Tracker","url":"/topic.cardtracker"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/property","name":"property","description":"","title":"Property","url":"/topic.property"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nsw","name":"nsw","description":"","title":"NSW","url":"/topic.nsw"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/agriculture","name":"agriculture","description":"","title":"Agriculture","url":"/topic.agriculture"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/model","name":"model","description":"","title":"Model","url":"/topic.model"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/wa","name":"wa","description":"","title":"WA","url":"/topic.wa"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/vic","name":"vic","description":"","title":"VIC","url":"/topic.vic"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/qld","name":"qld","description":"","title":"QLD","url":"/topic.qld"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/federalbudget","name":"federalbudget","description":"","title":"Federal Budget","url":"/topic.federalbudget"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/G10","name":"G10","description":"","title":"G10","url":"/topic.G10"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sa","name":"sa","description":"","title":"SA","url":"/topic.sa"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/tas","name":"tas","description":"","title":"TAS","url":"/topic.tas"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/currencies","name":"currencies","description":"","title":"Currencies","url":"/topic.currencies"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/carbonpricing","name":"carbonpricing","description":"","title":"Carbon pricing","url":"/topic.carbonpricing"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/dairy","name":"dairy","description":"","title":"Dairy","url":"/topic.dairy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/marketoutlook","name":"marketoutlook","description":"","title":"Market Outlook","url":"/topic.marketoutlook"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/data","name":"data","description":"","title":"Data","url":"/topic.data"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/confidence","name":"confidence","description":"","title":"Confidence","url":"/topic.confidence"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/wages","name":"wages","description":"","title":"Wages","url":"/topic.wages"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/lng","name":"lng","description":"","title":"LNG","url":"/topic.lng"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/gold","name":"gold","description":"","title":"Gold","url":"/topic.gold"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fairvalue","name":"fairvalue","description":"","title":"Fair value","url":"/topic.fairvalue"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/energy","name":"energy","description":"","title":"Energy","url":"/topic.energy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/luciellis","name":"luciellis","description":"","title":"Luci Ellis","url":"/topic.luciellis"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fiscalpolicy","name":"fiscalpolicy","description":"","title":"Fiscal policy","url":"/topic.fiscalpolicy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sustainablefinance","name":"sustainablefinance","description":"","title":"Sustainable finance","url":"/topic.sustainablefinance"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/economiccalendar","name":"economiccalendar","description":"","title":"Economic Calendar","url":"/topic.economiccalendar"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nt","name":"nt","description":"","title":"NT","url":"/topic.nt"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/august2025reporting","name":"august2025reporting","description":"","title":"August 2025 reporting","url":"/topic.august2025reporting"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/leadingindex","name":"leadingindex","description":"","title":"Leading Index","url":"/topic.leadingindex"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/dwellingapprovals","name":"dwellingapprovals","description":"","title":"Dwelling approvals","url":"/topic.dwellingapprovals"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/metals","name":"metals","description":"","title":"Metals","url":"/topic.metals"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/billevans","name":"billevans","description":"","title":"Bill Evans","url":"/topic.billevans"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/population","name":"population","description":"","title":"Population","url":"/topic.population"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/steel","name":"steel","description":"","title":"Steel","url":"/topic.steel"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/datax","name":"datax","description":"","title":"DataX","url":"/topic.datax"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/renewables","name":"renewables","description":"","title":"Renewables","url":"/topic.renewables"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aluminium","name":"aluminium","description":"","title":"Aluminium","url":"/topic.aluminium"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/pacific","name":"pacific","description":"","title":"Pacific","url":"/topic.pacific"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/payments","name":"payments","description":"","title":"Payments","url":"/topic.payments"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/manufacturing","name":"manufacturing","description":"","title":"Manufacturing","url":"/topic.manufacturing"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/png","name":"png","description":"Papua New Guinea","title":"PNG","url":"/topic.png"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/asia","name":"asia","description":"","title":"Asia","url":"/topic.asia"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ssa","name":"ssa","description":"","title":"SSA","url":"/topic.ssa"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/government","name":"government","description":"","title":"Government","url":"/topic.government"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/greenbonds","name":"greenbonds","description":"","title":"Green bonds","url":"/topic.greenbonds"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sustainabilitylinkedloans","name":"sustainabilitylinkedloans","description":"","title":"Sustainability linked loans","url":"/topic.sustainabilitylinkedloans"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/socialfinance","name":"socialfinance","description":"","title":"Social finance","url":"/topic.socialfinance"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/redbook","name":"redbook","description":"","title":"Red Book","url":"/topic.redbook"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cybersecurity","name":"cybersecurity","description":"","title":"Cybersecurity","url":"/topic.cybersecurity"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/february2026reporting","name":"february2026reporting","description":"","title":"February 2026 reporting","url":"/topic.february2026reporting"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzconsumerconfidence","name":"nzconsumerconfidence","description":"","title":"NZ consumer confidence","url":"/topic.nzconsumerconfidence"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/mining","name":"mining","description":"","title":"Mining","url":"/topic.mining"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/tax","name":"tax","description":"","title":"Tax","url":"/topic.tax"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/westpacwrap","name":"westpacwrap","description":"","title":"Westpac Wrap","url":"/topic.westpacwrap"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/financeam","name":"financeam","description":"","title":"Finance AM","url":"/topic.financeam"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/climatechange","name":"climatechange","description":"","title":"Climate change","url":"/topic.climatechange"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/realtimepayments","name":"realtimepayments","description":"","title":"Real-time payments","url":"/topic.realtimepayments"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzindustryinsights","name":"nzindustryinsights","description":"","title":"NZ Industry Insights","url":"/topic.nzindustryinsights"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/digitisation","name":"digitisation","description":"","title":"Digitisation ","url":"/topic.digitisation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/tourism","name":"tourism","description":"","title":"Tourism","url":"/topic.tourism"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/quarterlybusinesssnapshot","name":"quarterlybusinesssnapshot","description":"","title":"Quarterly Business Snapshot","url":"/topic.quarterlybusinesssnapshot"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aofm","name":"aofm","description":"","title":"AOFM","url":"/topic.aofm"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fiji","name":"fiji","description":"","title":"Fiji","url":"/topic.fiji"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzregions","name":"nzregions","description":"","title":"NZ Regions","url":"/topic.nzregions"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/infrastructure","name":"infrastructure","description":"","title":"Infrastructure","url":"/topic.infrastructure"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/inflationlinked","name":"inflationlinked","description":"","title":"Inflation-Linked","url":"/topic.inflationlinked"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/swapspread","name":"swapspread","description":"","title":"Swap spread","url":"/topic.swapspread"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzagriupdate","name":"nzagriupdate","description":"","title":"NZ Agri Update","url":"/topic.nzagriupdate"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/election","name":"election","description":"","title":"Election","url":"/topic.election"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/resources","name":"resources","description":"","title":"Resources","url":"/topic.resources"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/swaption","name":"swaption","description":"","title":"Swaption","url":"/topic.swaption"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/traderecommendation","name":"traderecommendation","description":"","title":"Trade recommendation","url":"/topic.traderecommendation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/technology","name":"technology","description":"","title":"Technology","url":"/topic.technology"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/greentailoreddeposits","name":"greentailoreddeposits","description":"","title":"Green tailored deposits","url":"/topic.greentailoreddeposits"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/hydrogen","name":"hydrogen","description":"","title":"Hydrogen","url":"/topic.hydrogen"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/semifactsheet","name":"semifactsheet","description":"","title":"Semi factsheet ","url":"/topic.semifactsheet"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fxdaily","name":"fxdaily","description":"","title":"FX Daily","url":"/topic.fxdaily"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/meat","name":"meat","description":"","title":"Meat","url":"/topic.meat"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/diversity","name":"diversity","description":"","title":"Diversity","url":"/topic.diversity"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/australianagriculture","name":"australianagriculture","description":"","title":"Australian agriculture","url":"/topic.australianagriculture"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/financialservices","name":"financialservices","description":"","title":"Financial services","url":"/topic.financialservices"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/coasttocoast","name":"coasttocoast","description":"","title":"Coast to coast","url":"/topic.coasttocoast"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/boc","name":"boc","description":"","title":"BOC","url":"/topic.boc"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/transport","name":"transport","description":"","title":"Transport","url":"/topic.transport"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzhometruths","name":"nzhometruths","description":"","title":"NZ Home Truths","url":"/topic.nzhometruths"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/payrolls","name":"payrolls","description":"","title":"Payrolls","url":"/topic.payrolls"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/relativevalue","name":"relativevalue","description":"","title":"Relative value","url":"/topic.relativevalue"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/covid","name":"covid","description":"","title":"COVID-19","url":"/topic.covid"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/horticulture","name":"horticulture","description":"","title":"Horticulture ","url":"/topic.horticulture"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sustainability","name":"sustainability","description":"","title":"Sustainability","url":"/topic.sustainability"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/westernsydney","name":"westernsydney","description":"","title":"Western Sydney","url":"/topic.westernsydney"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/india","name":"india","description":"","title":"India","url":"/topic.india"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/qeo","name":"qeo","description":"","title":"QEO","url":"/topic.qeo"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sandp","name":"sandp","description":"","title":"S\u0026P","url":"/topic.sandp"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/super","name":"super","description":"superannuation","title":"Super","url":"/topic.super"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/forestry","name":"forestry","description":"","title":"Forestry","url":"/topic.forestry"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/utilities","name":"utilities","description":"","title":"Utilities","url":"/topic.utilities"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/digitalassets","name":"digitalassets","description":"","title":"Digital assets","url":"/topic.digitalassets"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/defence","name":"defence","description":"","title":"Defence","url":"/topic.defence"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/creditfan","name":"creditfan","description":"","title":"Credit fan","url":"/topic.creditfan"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/health","name":"health","description":"","title":"Health","url":"/topic.health"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/bobs","name":"bobs","description":"","title":"BoBs","url":"/topic.bobs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aviation","name":"aviation","description":"","title":"Aviation","url":"/topic.aviation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/liquidity","name":"liquidity","description":"","title":"Liquidity","url":"/topic.liquidity"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/apra","name":"apra","description":"","title":"APRA","url":"/topic.apra"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/futures","name":"futures","description":"","title":"Futures","url":"/topic.futures"}]}