Cliff Notes: a wild ride for global markets
Key insights from the week that was.
This week, Australian data provided a constructive view on the economic outlook. Global financial markets meanwhile were jolted by the US’ strong August CPI report.
Beginning first with consumer sentiment, the Westpac-MI survey reported a bounce in confidence, the headline index gaining 3.9%. Coming at a time of high uncertainty around the cost of living, the domestic rate outlook and global growth, this is a pleasing result. Though, at 84.4, the index remains near historic lows typically only seen during recessions and major economic disturbances. Arguably, the key difference between now and these other periods is that the Australian labour market is extremely tight, with the unemployment rate at 50-year lows. Nominal wage growth is also strengthening, which is perhaps, in part, why ‘family finance expectations for the year ahead’ rose 5% in September even as ‘family finances versus a year ago’ declined 5% to a 10-year low. Notably, ‘time to buy a major household item’ is still 34% below average and our quarterly ‘wisest place for savings’ questions point to intense risk aversion.
Chief Economist Bill Evans provided a full discussion of the implications of the latest sentiment readings for the economy in a video update mid-week. The outlook for the housing market heading into spring was also a key theme of our latest Market Outlook in Conversation podcast.
According to NAB’s latest business survey, Australian firms are drawing strength and optimism from current circumstances, with conditions up 1pt to +20 and confidence up 2pts to +10 in August – both well above average reads. Importantly, the momentum in business conditions looks to be broad based by state and industry. Views on utilisation also continue to point towards labour and capital being at full capacity. Thankfully for inflation, upstream cost pressures moderated somewhat in August, although they remain at very elevated levels, having reached a record high in July.
Despite still being impacted by COVID-19 absences, August’s employment print indicates the labour market remains in robust health. At 33.5k, job growth in the month was able to offset much of the decline observed in July (-40.9k). And a solid increase in participation led to the up-tick in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A stronger result would have arguably been possible had illness not affected hours and the number of workers available. These impediments should subside in coming months, giving room for further gains before 2022’s rate hikes slow the economy and consequently labour demand into 2023.
The August overseas arrivals and departures release meanwhile marked two key developments: a ‘normalisation’ of overseas travel towards typical seasonal trends; and hints that momentum in visa arrivals is beginning to build. On the latter, the lack of net positive visa arrivals has been a key contributor to labour market tightness. It is therefore promising to see the ‘temporary work’ group of visa arrivals post a solid net gain of 10.3k in August. With more resources dedicated to reducing visa processing backlogs, the return of foreign labour should, in time, go some way towards alleviating Australia’s labour supply constraints.
Over in New Zealand, as anticipated by Westpac, Q2 GDP was strong, gaining 1.7% as the service sector benefitted from the return of international tourists. The result also confirms that the 0.2% decline of Q1 was due to temporary factors, particularly disruptions related to the omicron wave of COVID-19 which have now largely passed. The Q2 result supports our expectation that the RBNZ will continue to hike into year end to a peak cash rate of 4.0%. This is necessary to bring demand and supply into line and mitigate inflation risks.
Turning then to the US. August’s strong core CPI print got all the headlines this week, but the dataflow was decidedly mixed overall.
Against an expectation of a 0.3% gain for the month, August’s 0.6% rise for the core CPI was a shock to markets, particularly as they had prepared for a downside surprise. With the recent hawkish rhetoric of FOMC members still fresh in their minds, market participants bid the US dollar aggressively straight after the release, while bonds and equities sold off in an equally volatile fashion. Westpac and the market now expect at least 175bps of hikes into year-end by the FOMC, taking the fed funds rate to a peak of 4.125% (Westpac) or above (market).
Westpac sees the flow of decisions as most likely being a 75bp hike in September followed by a 50bp increase at both the November and December meetings. The market however is pricing a greater risk of an accelerated delivery during September and November, with 150bps priced for those two meetings, as well as the need for additional tightening in late-2022 or early 2023, with around 215bps priced by March 2023.
Arguably, the FOMC sees a need to act with such vigour to keep real yields along the yield curve materially above zero – currently 5-10 year real yields are around 1.0%. To do so, nominal yields need to be kept around current levels into year end, and the anticipated 2023 decline managed to a pace proportional to the fall in medium-term inflation expectations. Maintaining real yields around 1.0% well into 2023 should give the FOMC comfort that the remaining risks related to inflation will pass.
Our concern however is that the hit to output from the fight against inflation will endure. Currently we see an output gap circa 3.0% of GDP by end-2023, likely increasing to 3.5% come end-2024 given rate cuts are only expected to commence in 2024 once inflation has abated. If this forecast eventuates, it will prove a material negative for US productivity, profitability and income into the medium-term as well as a material hindrance to the US’ emission reduction ambition to 2030 and beyond – as discussed in our September Market Outlook.
Notably, the activity data released this week has highlighted that the risks to US growth lay to the downside. Control group retail sales were much weaker than expected in August (0.0% against 0.5% consensus) and the July growth rate was halved to 0.4%. Industrial production also contracted 0.2% in August (0.0% consensus), while recent readings from the regional federal reserve surveys point to increasingly fragile conditions and growing uncertainty over the outlook.
As a result, the latest estimate of Q3 GDP from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow nowcast is just 0.5% annualised, less than a quarter of the decline in activity experienced over H1 2022. At the turn of the year and through 2023, financial markets are likely to increasingly factor in these risks for the US, particularly FX markets given the US dollar’s historically-elevated starting level.
Stay informed with Westpac IQ
Get the latest reports straight to your inbox.
Related articles
Browse topics
Disclaimer
©2025 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.
Things you should know
We respect your privacy: You can view our privacy statement at Westpac.com.au. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.
This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.
Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by the Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts.
Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument.
Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that (a) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material; (b) this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate; (c) to the best of the author’s knowledge, they are not in receipt of inside information and this material does not contain inside information; and (d) no other part of the Westpac Group has made any attempt to influence this material.
Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.
Additional country disclosures:
Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac ("WNZL"). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz .
Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). In accordance with APRA's Prudential Standard 222 'Association with Related Entities', Westpac does not stand behind WCM other than as provided for in certain legal agreements between Westpac and WCM andobligations of WCM do not represent liabilities of Westpac. This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.
The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.
UK and EU: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request.
Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac.
This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. Rather, this communication is being made only to and is directed at (a) those persons falling within the definition of Investment Professionals (set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) those persons falling within the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this communication or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this communication is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party.
This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.
Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. Such disclosure fulfils certain additional information requirements of MAR and associated delegated legislation and by accepting this communication you acknowledge that you are aware of the existence of such additional disclosure and its contents.
To the extent this communication comprises an investment recommendation it is classified as non-independent research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and therefore constitutes a marketing communication. Further, this communication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.