Morning Report
Today's economic developments and market movements.
Click here for the full Morning Report (PDF 197KB)
Key themes: US equities rallied following positive comments from Fed Chair Powell, who noted that the recent run of data was consistent with the economy being back on the “disinflationary path”.
These comments were consistent with the view that the Fed will deliver its first cut of the cycle in the coming months.
US bond yields were lower, while the US dollar also lost ground.
The Aussie was higher following the release of the minutes from the RBA Board’s June meeting, which left the door open for a rate hike.
The prices of key commodities were generally lower, with oil and gold both lower.
Share markets: After a sluggish start to the session, US equities rallied following positive comments from Fed Chair Powell and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee.
These comments were consistent with the view that the Fed will deliver its first cut of the cycle in the coming months. As such, the rally was led by interest rate sensitive sectors, most notably consumer discretionary stocks.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.6% to close at to 5,509 points. The tech-rich Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 18,028.8 points. The Dow Jones advanced 0.4% to 39,331.9 points.
The ASX200 closed 0.4% lower, marking the second consecutive day of losses. Seven of eleven sectors were lower, led by materials stocks. Futures are pointing to positive open this morning.
Interest rates: US bond yields were lower across the curve.
The 2-year bond yield declined 2 basis points to 4.74%. The 10-year treasury yield declined 3 basis points to 4.43%.
Interest-rate markets are pricing in just under two 25 basis points rate cuts this year (or 46 basis points of cuts), one in November and the other in December.
Australian yields were little changed. The 3-year government bond yield (futures) remained at 4.11%, while the 10-year government bond yield (futures) ticked lower by 1 basis point to 4.11%.
There is now around a 50% chance of an RBA rate hike priced in for 2024 with around a 25% chance of a hike at the August meeting. Markets have pushed out the first full rate cut to August next year.
Foreign exchange: The US dollar was slightly lower, increasing to a session high of around 106.05 before losing ground and settling at 105.69. The fall in the US dollar followed comments from Fed officials and was consistent with the lower yields, particularly at the long end of the curve.
The Aussie appreciated against the US dollar, sliding below 0.6635 before increasing and settling at around 0.6666.
Commodities: Commodities were generally lower, with gold, iron ore and oil all lower. Coal and copper were higher.
This WTI futures was slightly down overnight and is currently trading at around US$82.81 per barrel.
Australia: The minutes for the RBA Board’s June 2024 meeting noted that the Board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board’s next move will be dictated by the incoming data, most notably the Q2 inflation print.
The minutes also highlighted that levels matter in the RBA’s view of the economy, as well as growth rates. The Board’s deliberations are increasingly being framed as assessments of these gaps. This is not a complete departure from past approaches, but as the apparent gaps narrow, the evidence base for these estimates will face intensified scrutiny. Deciding when the gaps have closed will be a judgement call.
One point to watch in future RBA communication is how the central bank reconciles its view that the labour market is still tighter than the full employment level, with its view – which we share – that wages growth has peaked. Meanwhile, near-term fluctuations and surprises in goods and services inflation are the main focus. While upside risks remain, so far, actual outcomes are still broadly tracking on a path consistent with returning inflation to target in 2026.
The RBA is not in situation of needing to lean against strong private sector demand that is driving inflation higher. Rather, we see weak demand and declining inflation. The policy decision therefore rests on views on whether demand is weak enough to bring inflation down fast enough, given the factors working in the wrong direction. The awkwardness of possibly needing to lean against supply disruptions points to the need for other arms of policy to repair the supply side.
Eurozone: Inflation eased to 2.5%yr in June after briefly accelerating to 2.6%yr in May. This was in line with market expectations. Core inflation was a touch stronger than the 2.8%yr the market was expecting, coming in at 2.9%yr. Services inflation remained around 4%yr, a rate held since the start of this year. Overall, this flash release indicates inflation pressures are continuing to abate in Europe, though there remains a degree of persistence that will only slowly fade.
The unemployment rate remained at a historically low level of 6.4% in May. This was unchanged from April and in line with market expectations.
United States: At the ECB’s Sintra central banking conference, ECB President Lagarde, FOMC Chair Powell and Brazil’s President Campos Neto shared the stage for the keynote monetary policy panel. Lagarde and Powell’s remarks were both constructive on inflation and the health of their respective economies. Powell in particular noted that the US is back on a “disinflationary path”, but that further confidence is necessary amongst Committee members before acting. He said “because the US economy is strong and the labour market is strong, we have the ability to take our time and get this right”. Powell also made clear that the risks the US faces are increasingly balanced, with downside risks to the labour market coming into view.
Chair Powell’s remarks speak to a first cut in coming months and to continued modest easing thereafter, consistent with our view and in line with the ECB.
Also speaking overnight, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said “we are on a path to 2%. if you just hold the rates where they are while inflation comes down, you are tightening — so you should do that by decision, not by default.”
The June JOLTS survey provided further evidence of labour demand and supply coming into balance. The job opening count was a touch higher than the market expected at 8.14mil, but the job opening rate was little changed from May and within 0.5% of the pre-pandemic level. The hiring, separation and quit rates were also all near their pre-pandemic averages.
Stay informed with Westpac IQ
Get the latest reports straight to your inbox.
Related articles
Morning Report
Morning Report
Morning Report
Browse topics
Disclaimer
©2025 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.
Things you should know
We respect your privacy: You can view our privacy statement at Westpac.com.au. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.
This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.
Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by the Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts.
Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument.
Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that (a) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material; (b) this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate; (c) to the best of the author’s knowledge, they are not in receipt of inside information and this material does not contain inside information; and (d) no other part of the Westpac Group has made any attempt to influence this material.
Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.
Additional country disclosures:
Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac ("WNZL"). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz .
Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). In accordance with APRA's Prudential Standard 222 'Association with Related Entities', Westpac does not stand behind WCM other than as provided for in certain legal agreements between Westpac and WCM andobligations of WCM do not represent liabilities of Westpac. This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.
The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.
UK and EU: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request.
Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac.
This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. Rather, this communication is being made only to and is directed at (a) those persons falling within the definition of Investment Professionals (set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) those persons falling within the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this communication or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this communication is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party.
This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.
Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. Such disclosure fulfils certain additional information requirements of MAR and associated delegated legislation and by accepting this communication you acknowledge that you are aware of the existence of such additional disclosure and its contents.
To the extent this communication comprises an investment recommendation it is classified as non-independent research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and therefore constitutes a marketing communication. Further, this communication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.