Australian GDP Q4 Preview: Trend growth restored, inflation risks remain
16:49 February 27 2026
Share article
Share
Economy posts strong finish to 2025
Q4 GDP f/c: 0.8%qtr, 2.3%yr
Read full report 'Australian GDP Q4 preview: Trend growth restored, inflation risks remain ' (PDF 438KB) Australia’s recovery continued over the final quarter of 2025 with the economy expanding an estimated 0.8%qtr to be up 2.3%yr in year-ended terms. The out-performance in the quarter was driven by an acceleration in consumer spending, with some support from businesses and construction. Abstracting from the volatility, we think the economy is currently growing around its long-run potential, with the handover in the drivers of growth from public to private demand now largely complete. The key question is whether this near-term growth profile is consistent with inflation returning sustainably to target. While productivity growth is expected to come in at around 1.0%yr, the increase in earnings per hour is likely to see nominal unit labour costs (ULC) still rising at a brisk 1.2%qtr, with growth accelerating through the second half of 2025 across both the economy and the market sector. This is likely to keep the RBA alert to upside inflation risks. Click on above PDF link for full report
Related articles
February 20 2026
•
5 mins
December 19 2025
•
5 mins
December 18 2025
•
3 mins
20
{"topicSelector":[{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aud","name":"aud","description":"","title":"AUD","url":"/topic.aud"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/interestrates","name":"interestrates","description":"","title":"Interest rates","url":"/topic.interestrates"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/usd","name":"usd","description":"","title":"USD","url":"/topic.usd"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzd","name":"nzd","description":"","title":"NZD","url":"/topic.nzd"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/australia","name":"australia","description":"","title":"Australia","url":"/topic.australia"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/newzealand","name":"newzealand","description":"","title":"New Zealand","url":"/topic.newzealand"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rates","name":"rates","description":"","title":"Rates","url":"/topic.rates"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/credit","name":"credit","description":"","title":"Credit","url":"/topic.credit"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/acgb","name":"acgb","description":"","title":"ACGB","url":"/topic.acgb"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/commodities","name":"commodities","description":"","title":"Commodities","url":"/topic.commodities"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rba","name":"rba","description":"","title":"RBA","url":"/topic.rba"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/jpy","name":"jpy","title":"JPY","url":"/topic.jpy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/inflation","name":"inflation","description":"","title":"Inflation","url":"/topic.inflation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/abs","name":"abs","description":"","title":"ABS","url":"/topic.abs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/yieldcurve","name":"yieldcurve","description":"","title":"Yield curve","url":"/topic.yieldcurve"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ustreasury","name":"ustreasury","description":"","title":"US Treasury UST","url":"/topic.ustreasury"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/eur","name":"eur","description":"","title":"EUR","url":"/topic.eur"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fx","name":"fx","description":"","title":"FX","url":"/topic.fx"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ois","name":"ois","description":"","title":"OIS","url":"/topic.ois"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/semigovernment","name":"semigovernment","description":"","title":"Semi government","url":"/topic.semigovernment"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/basis","name":"basis","description":"","title":"Basis","url":"/topic.basis"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rbnz","name":"rbnz","description":"","title":"RBNZ","url":"/topic.rbnz"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/podcast","name":"podcast","description":"","title":"Podcast","url":"/topic.podcast"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/gbp","name":"gbp","description":"","title":"GBP","url":"/topic.gbp"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/whatspricedin","name":"whatspricedin","description":"","title":"What\u0027s priced in","url":"/topic.whatspricedin"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nz","name":"nz","description":"","title":"NZ","url":"/topic.nz"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/us","name":"us","description":"","title":"US","url":"/topic.us"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/macro","name":"macro","description":"","title":"Macro","url":"/topic.macro"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/forecasts","name":"forecasts","description":"","title":"Forecasts","url":"/topic.forecasts"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fomc","name":"fomc","description":"","title":"Federal Reserve FOMC","url":"/topic.fomc"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/crossmarket","name":"crossmarket","description":"","title":"Cross market","url":"/topic.crossmarket"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/europe","name":"europe","description":"","title":"Europe","url":"/topic.europe"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/bonds","name":"bonds","description":"","title":"Bonds","url":"/topic.bonds"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/morningreport","name":"morningreport","description":"","title":"Morning Report","url":"/topic.morningreport"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/crosscurrencyxccy","name":"crosscurrencyxccy","description":"","title":"Cross currency XCCY","url":"/topic.crosscurrencyxccy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ecb","name":"ecb","description":"","title":"European central bank ECB","url":"/topic.ecb"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/housing","name":"housing","description":"","title":"Housing","url":"/topic.housing"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/bbsw","name":"bbsw","description":"","title":"BBSW","url":"/topic.bbsw"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/uk","name":"uk","description":"","title":"UK","url":"/topic.uk"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/china","name":"china","description":"","title":"China","url":"/topic.china"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/chartpacks","name":"chartpacks","description":"","title":"Chart packs","url":"/topic.chartpacks"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/consumer","name":"consumer","description":"","title":"Consumer","url":"/topic.consumer"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ironore","name":"ironore","description":"","title":"Iron ore","url":"/topic.ironore"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/retail","name":"retail","description":"","title":"Retail","url":"/topic.retail"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/antipodeandaily","name":"antipodeandaily","description":"","title":"Antipodean Daily","url":"/topic.antipodeandaily"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/securitisation","name":"securitisation","description":"","title":"Securitisation","url":"/topic.securitisation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/employment","name":"employment","description":"","title":"Employment","url":"/topic.employment"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/rmbs","name":"rmbs","description":"","title":"RMBS","url":"/topic.rmbs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cmbs","name":"cmbs","description":"","title":"CMBS","url":"/topic.cmbs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/labour","name":"labour","description":"","title":"Labour","url":"/topic.labour"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/consumersentiment","name":"consumersentiment","description":"","title":"Consumer Sentiment","url":"/topic.consumersentiment"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/boj","name":"boj","description":"","title":"BOJ","url":"/topic.boj"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cliffnotes","name":"cliffnotes","description":"","title":"Cliff notes","url":"/topic.cliffnotes"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/gdp","name":"gdp","description":"","title":"GDP","url":"/topic.gdp"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/construction","name":"construction","description":"","title":"Construction","url":"/topic.construction"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/japan","name":"japan","description":"","title":"Japan","url":"/topic.japan"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/trade","name":"trade","description":"","title":"Trade","url":"/topic.trade"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/houseprices","name":"houseprices","description":"","title":"House prices","url":"/topic.houseprices"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cny","name":"cny","description":"","title":"CNY","url":"/topic.cny"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/businessconditions","name":"businessconditions","description":"","title":"Business conditions","url":"/topic.businessconditions"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/esg","name":"esg","description":"","title":"ESG","url":"/topic.esg"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cad","name":"cad","description":"","title":"CAD","url":"/topic.cad"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/oil","name":"oil","title":"Oil","url":"/topic.oil"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/coal","name":"coal","description":"","title":"Coal","url":"/topic.coal"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/boe","name":"boe","description":"","title":"BOE","url":"/topic.boe"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/pboc","name":"pboc","description":"","title":"PBOC","url":"/topic.pboc"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/canada","name":"canada","description":"","title":"Canada","url":"/topic.canada"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cardtracker","name":"cardtracker","description":"","title":"Card Tracker","url":"/topic.cardtracker"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/property","name":"property","description":"","title":"Property","url":"/topic.property"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nsw","name":"nsw","description":"","title":"NSW","url":"/topic.nsw"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/agriculture","name":"agriculture","description":"","title":"Agriculture","url":"/topic.agriculture"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/model","name":"model","description":"","title":"Model","url":"/topic.model"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/wa","name":"wa","description":"","title":"WA","url":"/topic.wa"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/vic","name":"vic","description":"","title":"VIC","url":"/topic.vic"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/qld","name":"qld","description":"","title":"QLD","url":"/topic.qld"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/federalbudget","name":"federalbudget","description":"","title":"Federal Budget","url":"/topic.federalbudget"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/G10","name":"G10","description":"","title":"G10","url":"/topic.G10"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sa","name":"sa","description":"","title":"SA","url":"/topic.sa"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/currencies","name":"currencies","description":"","title":"Currencies","url":"/topic.currencies"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/tas","name":"tas","description":"","title":"TAS","url":"/topic.tas"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/gold","name":"gold","description":"","title":"Gold","url":"/topic.gold"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/carbonpricing","name":"carbonpricing","description":"","title":"Carbon pricing","url":"/topic.carbonpricing"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/dairy","name":"dairy","description":"","title":"Dairy","url":"/topic.dairy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/data","name":"data","description":"","title":"Data","url":"/topic.data"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/marketoutlook","name":"marketoutlook","description":"","title":"Market Outlook","url":"/topic.marketoutlook"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/wages","name":"wages","description":"","title":"Wages","url":"/topic.wages"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/confidence","name":"confidence","description":"","title":"Confidence","url":"/topic.confidence"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/lng","name":"lng","description":"","title":"LNG","url":"/topic.lng"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fairvalue","name":"fairvalue","description":"","title":"Fair value","url":"/topic.fairvalue"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/luciellis","name":"luciellis","description":"","title":"Luci Ellis","url":"/topic.luciellis"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/energy","name":"energy","description":"","title":"Energy","url":"/topic.energy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fiscalpolicy","name":"fiscalpolicy","description":"","title":"Fiscal policy","url":"/topic.fiscalpolicy"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sustainablefinance","name":"sustainablefinance","description":"","title":"Sustainable finance","url":"/topic.sustainablefinance"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/economiccalendar","name":"economiccalendar","description":"","title":"Economic Calendar","url":"/topic.economiccalendar"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/leadingindex","name":"leadingindex","description":"","title":"Leading Index","url":"/topic.leadingindex"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nt","name":"nt","description":"","title":"NT","url":"/topic.nt"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/august2025reporting","name":"august2025reporting","description":"","title":"August 2025 reporting","url":"/topic.august2025reporting"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/dwellingapprovals","name":"dwellingapprovals","description":"","title":"Dwelling approvals","url":"/topic.dwellingapprovals"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/february2026reporting","name":"february2026reporting","description":"","title":"February 2026 reporting","url":"/topic.february2026reporting"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/metals","name":"metals","description":"","title":"Metals","url":"/topic.metals"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/billevans","name":"billevans","description":"","title":"Bill Evans","url":"/topic.billevans"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/population","name":"population","description":"","title":"Population","url":"/topic.population"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/steel","name":"steel","description":"","title":"Steel","url":"/topic.steel"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/datax","name":"datax","description":"","title":"DataX","url":"/topic.datax"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/renewables","name":"renewables","description":"","title":"Renewables","url":"/topic.renewables"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aluminium","name":"aluminium","description":"","title":"Aluminium","url":"/topic.aluminium"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/pacific","name":"pacific","description":"","title":"Pacific","url":"/topic.pacific"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/payments","name":"payments","description":"","title":"Payments","url":"/topic.payments"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/manufacturing","name":"manufacturing","description":"","title":"Manufacturing","url":"/topic.manufacturing"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/png","name":"png","description":"Papua New Guinea","title":"PNG","url":"/topic.png"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/asia","name":"asia","description":"","title":"Asia","url":"/topic.asia"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/ssa","name":"ssa","description":"","title":"SSA","url":"/topic.ssa"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/government","name":"government","description":"","title":"Government","url":"/topic.government"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/greenbonds","name":"greenbonds","description":"","title":"Green bonds","url":"/topic.greenbonds"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sustainabilitylinkedloans","name":"sustainabilitylinkedloans","description":"","title":"Sustainability linked loans","url":"/topic.sustainabilitylinkedloans"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/socialfinance","name":"socialfinance","description":"","title":"Social finance","url":"/topic.socialfinance"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/redbook","name":"redbook","description":"","title":"Red Book","url":"/topic.redbook"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/cybersecurity","name":"cybersecurity","description":"","title":"Cybersecurity","url":"/topic.cybersecurity"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzconsumerconfidence","name":"nzconsumerconfidence","description":"","title":"NZ consumer confidence","url":"/topic.nzconsumerconfidence"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/mining","name":"mining","description":"","title":"Mining","url":"/topic.mining"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/tax","name":"tax","description":"","title":"Tax","url":"/topic.tax"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/westpacwrap","name":"westpacwrap","description":"","title":"Westpac Wrap","url":"/topic.westpacwrap"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/financeam","name":"financeam","description":"","title":"Finance AM","url":"/topic.financeam"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/climatechange","name":"climatechange","description":"","title":"Climate change","url":"/topic.climatechange"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/realtimepayments","name":"realtimepayments","description":"","title":"Real-time payments","url":"/topic.realtimepayments"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzindustryinsights","name":"nzindustryinsights","description":"","title":"NZ Industry Insights","url":"/topic.nzindustryinsights"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/quarterlybusinesssnapshot","name":"quarterlybusinesssnapshot","description":"","title":"Quarterly Business Snapshot","url":"/topic.quarterlybusinesssnapshot"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/digitisation","name":"digitisation","description":"","title":"Digitisation ","url":"/topic.digitisation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/tourism","name":"tourism","description":"","title":"Tourism","url":"/topic.tourism"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aofm","name":"aofm","description":"","title":"AOFM","url":"/topic.aofm"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fiji","name":"fiji","description":"","title":"Fiji","url":"/topic.fiji"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzregions","name":"nzregions","description":"","title":"NZ Regions","url":"/topic.nzregions"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/infrastructure","name":"infrastructure","description":"","title":"Infrastructure","url":"/topic.infrastructure"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/inflationlinked","name":"inflationlinked","description":"","title":"Inflation-Linked","url":"/topic.inflationlinked"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/swapspread","name":"swapspread","description":"","title":"Swap spread","url":"/topic.swapspread"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzagriupdate","name":"nzagriupdate","description":"","title":"NZ Agri Update","url":"/topic.nzagriupdate"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/election","name":"election","description":"","title":"Election","url":"/topic.election"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/resources","name":"resources","description":"","title":"Resources","url":"/topic.resources"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/swaption","name":"swaption","description":"","title":"Swaption","url":"/topic.swaption"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/traderecommendation","name":"traderecommendation","description":"","title":"Trade recommendation","url":"/topic.traderecommendation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/technology","name":"technology","description":"","title":"Technology","url":"/topic.technology"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/greentailoreddeposits","name":"greentailoreddeposits","description":"","title":"Green tailored deposits","url":"/topic.greentailoreddeposits"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/hydrogen","name":"hydrogen","description":"","title":"Hydrogen","url":"/topic.hydrogen"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/semifactsheet","name":"semifactsheet","description":"","title":"Semi factsheet ","url":"/topic.semifactsheet"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/fxdaily","name":"fxdaily","description":"","title":"FX Daily","url":"/topic.fxdaily"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/meat","name":"meat","description":"","title":"Meat","url":"/topic.meat"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/diversity","name":"diversity","description":"","title":"Diversity","url":"/topic.diversity"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/australianagriculture","name":"australianagriculture","description":"","title":"Australian agriculture","url":"/topic.australianagriculture"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/financialservices","name":"financialservices","description":"","title":"Financial services","url":"/topic.financialservices"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/coasttocoast","name":"coasttocoast","description":"","title":"Coast to coast","url":"/topic.coasttocoast"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/boc","name":"boc","description":"","title":"BOC","url":"/topic.boc"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/transport","name":"transport","description":"","title":"Transport","url":"/topic.transport"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/nzhometruths","name":"nzhometruths","description":"","title":"NZ Home Truths","url":"/topic.nzhometruths"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/payrolls","name":"payrolls","description":"","title":"Payrolls","url":"/topic.payrolls"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/relativevalue","name":"relativevalue","description":"","title":"Relative value","url":"/topic.relativevalue"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/covid","name":"covid","description":"","title":"COVID-19","url":"/topic.covid"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/horticulture","name":"horticulture","description":"","title":"Horticulture ","url":"/topic.horticulture"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sustainability","name":"sustainability","description":"","title":"Sustainability","url":"/topic.sustainability"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/westernsydney","name":"westernsydney","description":"","title":"Western Sydney","url":"/topic.westernsydney"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/india","name":"india","description":"","title":"India","url":"/topic.india"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/qeo","name":"qeo","description":"","title":"QEO","url":"/topic.qeo"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/sandp","name":"sandp","description":"","title":"S\u0026P","url":"/topic.sandp"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/super","name":"super","description":"superannuation","title":"Super","url":"/topic.super"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/forestry","name":"forestry","description":"","title":"Forestry","url":"/topic.forestry"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/utilities","name":"utilities","description":"","title":"Utilities","url":"/topic.utilities"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/digitalassets","name":"digitalassets","description":"","title":"Digital assets","url":"/topic.digitalassets"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/defence","name":"defence","description":"","title":"Defence","url":"/topic.defence"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/creditfan","name":"creditfan","description":"","title":"Credit fan","url":"/topic.creditfan"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/health","name":"health","description":"","title":"Health","url":"/topic.health"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/bobs","name":"bobs","description":"","title":"BoBs","url":"/topic.bobs"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/aviation","name":"aviation","description":"","title":"Aviation","url":"/topic.aviation"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/liquidity","name":"liquidity","description":"","title":"Liquidity","url":"/topic.liquidity"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/apra","name":"apra","description":"","title":"APRA","url":"/topic.apra"},{"tagId":"westpaciq:topics/futures","name":"futures","description":"","title":"Futures","url":"/topic.futures"}]}
Browse topics
Show more tags