Quarterly Agriculture Report – April 2026
Middle East shock weighs on agriculture outlook.
Report highlights
Agricultural Outlook
Softer growth was always expected this year as conditions normalised after a very strong 2025, when farm GDP expanded by 9.9%, with livestock producers expected to focus on herd and flock rebuilding and crop production to soften. However, the Middle East conflict has further weakened the outlook. Based on our modelling, we now expect real farm GVA to contract by -0.8% in 2026, with the largest downgrade to crop production. This reflects higher diesel, fertiliser and freight costs linked to the Middle East conflict, alongside hotter and drier conditions, with climate modelling pointing to El Niño. Yields are expected to be lower overall, with wheat the most exposed.
Commodity prices
The Westpac Agriculture Commodity Price Index firmed in March but still fell 4.9% q/q in Q4 and was only 2.3% higher over the year. Beef and lamb prices remain elevated, up 18.7% y/y and 39.3% y/y respectively, underpinned by tight supply and strong external demand. Over the rest of 2026, prices are expected to ease as global supply weighs on wheat and sugar, while trade policy and increased competition place some downward pressure on beef prices. In contrast, canola prices have been revised higher, consistent with firmer global oilseed markets and stronger biofuel demand. Lamb prices are also expected to be stronger given a tighter supply outlook.
Exports
Rural export volumes rose 6.9% over 2025, driven by strong meat and grain shipments, with export values lifting sharply early in 2026. Beef exports were up 10.8% y/y in the first two months of the year, underpinned by strong US demand. Export growth is expected to slow as domestic supply tightens and trade policy headwinds intensify. China’s new safeguard quotas are expected to materially reduce beef exports in H2 2026, while weaker crop production will limit wheat and canola exports after several strong seasons.
Non-labour costs
Energy and fertiliser costs have risen sharply following disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude briefly reached US$145/bbl, with prices expected to average around US$105/bbl in Q2 2026 before easing later in the year. National diesel prices are expected to peak around $3.20/litre and remain above pre‑conflict levels well into 2027. Fertiliser prices have surged, with the World Bank index up nearly 43% y/y in March, and are expected to stay elevated, weighing on margins and crop yields.
Risks
A key risk is that the reopening and normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz takes longer. In this scenario, our modelling points to energy prices remaining higher for longer, with diesel and fertiliser prices still above pre‑conflict levels in 2027. This would further squeeze farm margins and could see farm GDP contract by an average -0.5% pa over 2026-2027 compared to our baseline forecast of 0.3% pa.
How our key subsectors are looking
- Beef: After a very strong 2025, cattle markets face a more uneven year ahead. Export volumes remain robust, up 10.8% y/y early in 2026, with the US accounting for 28% of shipments. However, China’s 205,000‑tonne tariff‑free safeguard quota is expected to be filled by mid‑year, leading to a sharp slowdown in exports in H2. ABARES forecasts beef production to fall 6% in 2026–27 as slaughter declines. Prices are expected to remain supported in the near term before easing later in the year.
- Sheep: Tight supply continues to underpin sheep and lamb prices. Lamb slaughter rates were down nearly 6% y/y in Q4, with sheep slaughter falling more sharply as producers prioritise flock rebuilding. Despite the loss of Middle East export access, prices have remained elevated due to low supply and strong demand from the US and Europe. Lamb price forecasts have been revised higher for 2026, though prices are expected to ease further out as supply gradually recovers.
- Wheat: Global wheat supply remains ample, with world production estimated at a record 830mt in 2025–26, capping price upside. Australian production rose to around 36mt, but ABARES expects output to fall to around 33mt in 2026–27. However, higher diesel and fertiliser prices, low soil moisture and an emerging El Niño are expected to weigh on yields and may sway some farmers crop choice. Export demand has remained solid, but prices are expected to ease modestly as Northern Hemisphere supply comes to market.
- Dairy: Global dairy markets have stabilised but remain uneven, with recent price gains concentrated in milk powders. Australian milk production rose 2.8% y/y in March, though season‑to‑date output remains below last year. Domestic supply conditions remain soft and higher fuel and fertiliser costs are squeezing margins despite temporary processor support. Whole milk powder prices are expected to soften later in 2026, while skim milk powder prices are holding firmer than previously expected.
- Canola: Canola prices firmed over Q1, supported by higher oil prices and stronger biodiesel margins. Australian production for 2025–26 is estimated at 7.7mt, the second largest on record. Looking ahead, higher input costs and drier seasonal conditions are expected to limit yields, while stronger biofuel demand continues to support prices. Overall, prices are expected to remain supported but capped, easing modestly as Northern Hemisphere supply lifts.
- Sugar: Sugar prices lifted in March alongside higher oil prices but remain near multi‑year lows due to surplus global supply. Global production is forecast at 180–190mt in 2025–26, with Australian output upgraded to around 4.0 million tonnes. Demand growth remains modest at 1–2% per year, with policy restrictions weighing on consumption in key markets. Prices are expected to remain range bound through H1 2026, with a gradual recovery in H2 driven by supply adjustment.
Head of Business and Industry Economics, Sian Fenner, will be leading a webinar on Friday, 1 May from 1–2pm AEST, providing you with the opportunity to engage directly with the insights from the report.
Stay informed with Westpac IQ
Get the latest reports straight to your inbox.
Related articles
Browse topics
Disclaimer
©2026 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.
Things you should know
We respect your privacy: You can view the New Zealand Privacy Policy here, or the Australian Group Privacy Statement here. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.
This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.
Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision.
This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts.
Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument.
Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that (a) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material; (b) this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate; (c) to the best of the author’s knowledge, they are not in receipt of inside information and this material does not contain inside information; and (d) no other part of the Westpac Group has made any attempt to influence this material.
Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.
Additional country disclosures:
Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac ("WNZL"). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz.
Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Fiji: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac Fiji are available from www.westpac.com.fj © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia and registered as a branch in Fiji. The liability of its members is limited.
Papua New Guinea: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac PNG are available from www.westpac.com.pg © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia. Westpac is represented in Papua New Guinea by Westpac Bank - PNG - Limited. The liability of its members is limited.
U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). In accordance with APRA's Prudential Standard 222 'Association with Related Entities', Westpac does not stand behind WCM other than as provided for in certain legal agreements between Westpac and WCM and obligations of WCM do not represent liabilities of Westpac.
This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.
The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.
UK: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request.
This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. Rather, this communication is being made only to and is directed at (a) those persons falling within the definition of Investment Professionals (set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) those persons falling within the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this communication or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this communication is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party.
European Economic Area (“EEA”): This material may be distributed to you by either: (i) Westpac directly, or (ii) Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) under a sub-licensing arrangement. WEG has not edited or otherwise modified the content of this material. WEG is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac. Any product or service made available by WEG does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WEG). All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WEG.
This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.
Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. Such disclosure fulfils certain additional information requirements of MAR and associated delegated legislation and by accepting this communication you acknowledge that you are aware of the existence of such additional disclosure and its contents.
To the extent this communication comprises an investment recommendation it is classified as non-independent research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and therefore constitutes a marketing communication. Further, this communication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.