Markets Daily
Bond yields fell slightly on the eve of the eagerly awaited Fed decision, helped by softer Canadian inflation data. The US dollar was broadly firm, AUD trimming losses to 0.6530. Today’s calendar highlights are UK February CPI then the FOMC statement, quarterly forecasts and Chair Powell press conference.
Yesterday
The RBA kept its cash rate at 4.35% as fully expected. The statement included a notable tweak, from saying that a further rate increase “cannot be ruled out” to say that it is “not ruling anything in or out.” The Aussie lost yield support, tumbling from 0.6560 pre-announcement to 0.6515 in late Sydney trade. The only weaker G10 currency in the session was the Japanese yen despite the Bank of Japan taking the first steps to normalise super-loose monetary policy. The BoJ declared that the 2% inflation target was in sight so it scrapped its ‘yield curve control’ policy of a 1% yield cap on the 10-year government bond, also ending the negative rate on excess reserves held at the bank, from -0.1% to +0.1%. This rate was in place since 2016. However, it said that JGB purchases probably won’t change much. USD/JPY rose from 149.30 to 150.40 as Governor Ueda spoke. Japanese equities took heart, the Topix +1.1% and the ASX 200 +0.4% but many other regional indexes fell.
Currencies/Macro
The US dollar rose against the dollar bloc plus the Japanese yen but was little changed against European FX. USD/JPY extended its response to the BoJ decision to 150.96 – a four month high, +1.2% over the day. EUR/USD roundtripped from 1.0865 to 1.0835 and back. GBP/USD also dipped then recovered for little net change, at 1.2720. The AUD extended its post-RBA decline to 0.6504, but then retraced to 0.6530, net -0.4%. NZD/USD appeared rattled by the AUD slide, falling from 0.6080 pre-RBA to 0.6055, net -0.5% on the day. AUD/NZD retraced its negative reaction to the RBA, rising from a low of 1.0762 to 1.0794 – a two-month high.
US housing starts in February rose 10.7% (est. 8.2%, prior -12.3%). Building permits rose 1.9% (est. +0.5%, prior -0.3%).
Canadian CPI in February surprised to the downside. Headline CPI fell to 2.8%y/y (est. 3.1%y/y, prior 2.9%y/y). Core median fell to 3.1%y/y (est. 3.3%y/y, prior 3.3%y/y). USD/CAD jumped from 1.3570 to 1.3610 on the data but later eased to 1.3565, CAD -0.25% on the day.
March ZEW investor surveys were firmer than expected. Expectations for Germany rose to 31.7 (est. 20.5, prior 19.9) and current conditions rose to -80.5 (est. -82.0, prior -81.7). Eurozone expectations rose to 33.5 (prior 25.0).
Interest rates
The US 2yr treasury yield fell from 4.73% to 4.69%, while the 10yr yield fell from 4.33% to 4.29%. Markets price the Fed funds rate, currently 5.375% (mid), to be unchanged at today’s meeting, with a 40% chance of a cut by June.
Australian 3yr government bond yields (futures) preserved the post-RBA fall (-9bp), ranging sideways between 3.62% and 3.66%, the 10yr yield similarly consolidating in a 4.08%-4.12% range. Markets price the RBA cash rate to be unchanged at the next meeting on 7 May, with a 70% chance of a cut by August.
New Zealand rates markets price the OCR, currently at 5.50%, to be unchanged at the next meeting on 10 April, with a 60% chance of cut by August.
Credit has resumed its grind ahead of the index roll(s) with Main half a bp tighter to 52 and CDX in a bp to 48, and US IG cash also flat to a bp better as primary activity continued ahead of central bank meetings that will begin with the Fed this evening. Europe saw 10 issuers (ex-SSA) price EUR8.6bn while in the US 9 issuers priced USD18.2bn.
Commodities
Crude markets rose to October highs as the impact of Russian refinery attacks and Iraq’s plan to compensate for overproduction lifted sentiment. The April WTI contract is up 0.8% at $83.40 while the May Brent contract is up 0.55% at $87.37. Estimates of the impact of the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refinery attacks continue rising. Commodity trader Gunvor estimated about 600k of Russia’s refining capacity has been knocked out; EnergyAspects estimates that 850kbpd is currently offline and another 1.9mbpd is at risk; JP Morgan said that 900kbpd is offline, adding a risk premium of $4 to oil prices. JP Morgan added that the capacity could be offline for “several weeks if not months”. Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude price forecast to $90 by Q3 from $80 on tightening supply demand balances. Oil demand is forecast to increase by about 1.5mbpd this year, slightly above historical trends. Bloomberg tanker tracking data showed that two tankers carrying Russian flagship Urals crude have been idling off the west coast of India for more than three weeks. It remains unclear why, but the increased use of Western sanctions appears to be disrupting the fleet of tankers moving Russian oil. US gasoline futures have hit 6-month highs while prices at the pump are at the highest seasonal average in 2 years.
Metals gave back some of the recent gains with tin leading the correction. Tin is down 4.4% at $27,445 while nickel is down 2.7% at $17,380 and copper is down 1.3% at $8,972. Tin was hammered on the back of Indonesia approving 12 tin miners’ work plans for 2024 to 2028 as of March 16 according to the Acting Director General for Minerals and Coal in a Parliament Hearing. In addition, 107 nickel miners’ work plans and budgets have been approved plus 19 bauxite miners. Citi is bullish copper, noting it “has a set of unique characteristics that make it the bullish energy transition and AI trade within the commodity complex”, telling clients prices below $9,000 are “cheap” with prices forecast to hit $10,000 by the end of this year before reaching $12,000 at the end of next year.
Iron ore prices continued their rebound after better-than-expected Chinese activity data on Monday with the April SGX contract up another $2.90 from the same time yesterday to $106.25 while the 62% Mysteel index is up $2.55 to $107.45. However, wires reported that “Chinese mills are conducting more unscheduled maintenance in March due to widening losses and rising steel product inventories”, reducing the need to replenish iron ore inventories.
Day ahead
Eurozone: The March consumer confidence survey should continue to highlight households' uncertainty around the outlook.
UK headline CPI inflation is anticipated to moderate further in February, however stickiness in services inflation remains a concern of the Bank of England (market f/c: 3.5%yr overall, core 4.6%yr, services 6.0%yr).
The US Federal Reserve announces its policy decision and releases quarterly forecasts at 5am Thu Syd, with the press conference 30 minutes later. Recent data has made clear the FOMC have been successful in reining in inflation, with only the shelter component holding the aggregate inflation pulse above the 2.0%yr medium–term target. Consumer demand is also showing clear evidence of slowing after an extraordinarily strong 2023 and (with the exception of nonfarm payrolls) labour market data suggests balance between demand and supply, albeit with some downside risks becoming evident. While the FOMC have made clear they are not ready to cut interest rates from 5.25-5.50%, revised forecasts for rates and the economy will give clear guidance on the most likely timing of easing and the balance of risks. Chair Powell is also likely to convey detail on the Committee’s views at the press conference.
Stay informed with Westpac IQ
Get the latest reports straight to your inbox.
Related articles
Aussie bulls press the advantage
Browse topics
Disclaimer
©2025 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.
Things you should know
We respect your privacy: You can view our privacy statement at Westpac.com.au. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.
This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.
Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by the Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision. This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts.
Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument.
Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that (a) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material; (b) this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate; (c) to the best of the author’s knowledge, they are not in receipt of inside information and this material does not contain inside information; and (d) no other part of the Westpac Group has made any attempt to influence this material.
Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.
Additional country disclosures:
Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac ("WNZL"). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz .
Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). In accordance with APRA's Prudential Standard 222 'Association with Related Entities', Westpac does not stand behind WCM other than as provided for in certain legal agreements between Westpac and WCM andobligations of WCM do not represent liabilities of Westpac. This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.
The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.
UK and EU: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request.
Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac.
This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. Rather, this communication is being made only to and is directed at (a) those persons falling within the definition of Investment Professionals (set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) those persons falling within the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this communication or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this communication is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party.
This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.
Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. Such disclosure fulfils certain additional information requirements of MAR and associated delegated legislation and by accepting this communication you acknowledge that you are aware of the existence of such additional disclosure and its contents.
To the extent this communication comprises an investment recommendation it is classified as non-independent research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and therefore constitutes a marketing communication. Further, this communication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.