Budget 2026-27: Impact by industry sector
From tax reforms to spending cuts, this year’s Federal Budget signalled some controversial new directions. Here Westpac Institutional Bank analysts consider its likely impacts, sector by sector.
This year’s Federal Budget is arguably the most ambitious of Labor’s five Budgets so far, focussing on homeownership through large changes to the taxation of investments and on a return to surplus through cuts to the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
Changes to the negative gearing and capital gains tax regimes will affect how investors allocate their capital in sectors such as funds management, mining and construction. Sectors including mining, agriculture and freight and logistics will benefit from the Government’s moves to shore up fuel supply in times of crisis.
Participants in defence and health are set to benefit after those sectors received major funding boosts.
Defence
- Additional funding of AUD 6.8 billion over four years from 2026–27.
- Additional AUD 35.6 billion in defence spending over 10 years.
Defence was one of the big-ticket items in the Budget, with spending measures following on from the release of the 2026 National Defence Strategy and 2026 Integrated Investment Program.
Total approved defence spending will rise to AUD 239 billion from AUD 210 billion in last year’s Budget and much of that is going towards the AUKUS submarine program.
“The spending is geared towards moving AUKUS to the delivery stage and setting up elements like infrastructure and maintenance and acquiring the equipment to build the subs in the future,” says Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Rian Madex.
Local contractors stand to benefit, and many are positioning themselves to play a role in the AUKUS supply chain when Australia starts building. “The Australian government has a preference for sourcing locally where possible,” Madex says.
Automotive
- Reduction of 100 per cent Fringe Benefits Tax (FBT) discount for electric vehicles costing less than AUD 75,000, down to 25 per cent from 1 April 2029. Discounts for more expensive EVs will be phased out sooner.
- Halving of the fuel excise for three months from 1 April this year.
- Removal of ‘nuisance tariffs’, including on tyres.
Electric vehicle sales in Australia are already growing quickly – they were 7.4 per cent of new vehicle sales in 2023 and are now tracking at 14 to 16 per cent. Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Robert Stephenson expects that the phasing out of the FBT discount will pull forward EV sales, but only to the extent that there is enough supply.
Halving of the fuel excise for three months won’t have a material impact on the automotive industry, but by enabling motorists to drive more kilometres it will sustain demand for repairs and servicing, Stephenson says.
Only AUD 80,000 a year is raised from tariffs on tyres, but it imposes AUD 32 million in compliance costs on businesses, so the reduction in the regulatory burden will be welcome.
Aviation
- Increase the Passenger Movement Charge from 1 January 2027 by AUD 10 from AUD 70 – 80 per passenger.
The increase in the Passenger Movement Charge for every traveller leaving Australia won’t have much of an impact on the sector and will be passed on by airlines in ticket prices, says Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Nathan Foale.
Additional spending on fuel security is a “slight positive” for the aviation sector in that it will help ensure fuel availability during supply squeezes – but it won’t help with the current challenge of high jet fuel prices, he says.
Building
- Removal of negative gearing for the purchase of existing dwellings, but not for new dwellings.
- Capital gains tax (CGT) discount to be replaced with cost base indexation from 1 July 2027, including on existing investments.
- New dwellings can continue to receive the CGT discount.
- AUD 2 billion over four years from 2026–27 to support local governments and state utility providers to expedite the delivery of housing enabling infrastructure.
The changes to negative gearing, CGT and the subsequent favouring of newly built homes have grabbed headlines but won’t have a major impact on near-term building activity, predicts Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Mitchell Sanderson.
In the near-term, the CGT and negative gearing changes are likely to dampen investor sentiment and slightly slow renovation activity. “That softens demand for internally used construction materials and end products related to fit outs, such as joinery applications, electrical and plumbing components, plasterboard, and so on,” says Sanderson.
In the medium-term, the shift in policy is likely to slowly tilt construction activity towards the building of new homes.
The government says the AUD 2 billion on housing enabling infrastructure, such as roads, water, power and sewerage will support up to 65,000 new homes over 10 years, but Sanderson says this represents just one calendar quarter of the Federal Government’s National Housing Accord target for housing starts (60,000), whereby 1.2m new, well-located homes are aimed to be built over a 5 year period from July 2024 to June 2029.
“In terms of the actual impact on the construction of new homes, it’s quite muted,” he says.
Even so, it should increase demand for construction materials such as aggregates, concrete, timber and steel.
Property
- AUD 85.2 million over four years for better recognition of migrant skills through faster, more flexible skills assessments.
Property-related measures in the Budget including tax changes that incentivise home building, funding enabling infrastructure and measures to boost the building workforce are a sign the government is shifting its housing focus to increasing supply rather than trying to increase demand from first homebuyers, says Frank Allen, Director of Property Risk, at Westpac.
“Building costs were high prior to the Middle East conflict, and have only got worse. If this Budget does as they they're suggesting and flattens out dwelling price growth then that's not really going to help reduce that gap,” Allen says.
“It's hard to see how that's going to stimulate supply, in the in the near term at least.”
There’s not much in the Budget that will affect the commercial property sector, with the economy and interest rates a more significant factor, Allen says. Income streams from commercial property should remain quite healthy given Treasury’s forecast of an economic slowdown and not a recession.
Consumer spending
- Workers will receive an annual AUD 1,000 instant tax deduction from 2026-27.
- They will also benefit from an additional AUD 250 tax offset from 2027-28.
- Permanently extend the AUD 20,000 instant asset write off for small businesses with turnover up to AUD 10 million.
- Companies with a turnover of less than AUD 1 billion will be able to carry back a tax loss and offset it against tax paid up to two years earlier.
- Increased scrutiny of unfair competition from offshore digital retail platforms.
Consumer spending is likely to remain resilient but restrained in the face of the current cost of living challenges and interest rate settings, as households will continue to manage higher essential costs such as electricity and fuel, says Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Sophie Dalton.
In such an environment, the modest tax relief from 2026-27 will likely be spent on non-discretionary items such as food rather than increasing discretionary spending, she says.
For retailers themselves, the budget introduces several supportive measures, Dalton says, including the instant asset write off, the loss carry back provisions, reductions in regulatory burden and increased scrutiny of unfair offshore competition.
“These positives will be partially offset by the ongoing operating costs that businesses continue to experience, in addition to subdued consumer confidence and, elevated competitive intensity,” she says.
The abolition of the capital gains tax discount and the abolition of negative gearing on existing properties will reduce after-tax returns from these investments, negative impact on wealth effect and thus dampening the demand for big-ticket discretionary items, Dalton says.
Financial institutions
- From 1 July, companies with a turnover of less than AUD 1 billion will be able to carry back a tax loss and offset it against tax paid up to two years earlier.
- From 1 July 2028, small startups that make a tax loss in their first two years of operation will be able to use the loss to generate a refundable tax offset.
- Permanent extension of the AUD 20,000 instant asset write‑off for small businesses with turnover up to AUD 10 million.
Concessions for small businesses such as the instant asset write-off and the tax loss offsets will improve their cash flow flexibility and so will reduce their default risk. At the same time, the instant asset write-off will support equipment finance loans and small business loan growth, Michael says.
Changes to negative gearing and CGT will change the mix of banks’ loan portfolios, weakening demand for mortgages from investors and increasing demand from owner-occupiers, says Westpac Institutional Bank banking industry analyst Damien Michael.
But he adds that the changing mix shouldn’t have any impact on credit quality.
Banks could also increase lending to sectors which will receive investment support from the Budget, including infrastructure, defence and renewable energy.
Non-bank financial institutions
- From 1 July 2028, trustees will pay a minimum tax of 30 per cent on the taxable income of discretionary trusts.
Most of the Budget changes that affect banks also apply to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI), but non-bank lenders continue to face higher wholesale funding costs compared with traditional banks and so their profit margins will remain under pressure in a high-interest rate environment, says Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Stanny Sidana.
The Budget’s tax reform and cost of living measures should alleviate some pressure on households and SMEs and support asset performance and short-term credit quality.
Managed funds, alternative assets and private equity/private credit vehicles will face higher effective tax rates and produce lower after-tax returns following changes to the CGT regime. This could result in some investors shifting their funds as income yield strategies become more attractive compared with capital growth strategies, Sidana says.
Many NBFI investment vehicles such as unlisted funds, syndicates and private structures rely on the discretionary trust framework and the introduction of the 30% minimum tax on discretionary trusts will potentially lead to restructuring of investments towards fixed trusts, corporate vehicles and other institutional structures.
Health and National Disability Insurance Scheme
- Reducing spending growth in the National Disability Insurance Scheme by AUD 37.8 billion over four years.
- AUD 24.4 billion over five years from 2026–27 in additional funding for public hospitals.
- AUD 1.8 billion over five years to keep Australia’s 137 Medicare Urgent Care Clinics open.
- AUD 3.7 billion over four years from 2026–27 to deliver more support to residential aged care providers.
- AUD 5.9 billion over five years from 2025–26 for new and amended listings of drugs on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.
The Government is aiming to reduce growth in NDIS spending to 2 per cent a year, providing the largest saving in this year’s Budget.
The reforms will introduce a more stringent review process for potential recipients of the NDIS. They are designed to reduce NDIS supplier numbers by 160,000 by 2030, bringing the total to roughly 600,000 and will also reduce the average spend per recipient.
Westpac Institutional Bank health analyst Ed Williams says the reforms will mostly affect smaller NDIS suppliers who may struggle to meet the new compliance requirements.
“We expect consolidation. It’s a very fragmented market and no one has more than 10 per cent market share as it stands,” he says. “The smaller and less diversified players may struggle as a result of this, as some already have been.”
Williams says private hospitals can feel pressure from having to take overflow cases from public hospitals. The additional public hospital funding could promote smoother and less volatile demand, reducing the sector’s need to draw on labour hire agencies for ad hoc workforce needs.
However, regional private hospitals which are directly competing with a single public hospital might be under more pressure.
Medicare Urgent Care Clinics are profitable for operators, and their continued funding is good news for them and will also help divert low-risk cases away from hospital emergency departments.
Capital subsidies for residential aged care providers should help developers build facilities in lower socioeconomic areas where projects wouldn’t otherwise be built because the economics of the build doesn’t currently stack up, Williams says. The funding should provide an extra 5000 beds a year, which is below what is needed to match population growth, but private developers should be able to build the remainder in wealthy areas because they can charge higher Refundable Accommodation Deposits, or RADs.
Natural resources
- AUD 1.2 billion to establish a strategic reserve of critical minerals including antimony, gallium and rare earth elements.
- AUD 35.5 million over four years to ensure a secure and ongoing supply of affordable gas through the domestic wholesale gas market, including via the establishment of a Domestic Gas Reservation Mechanism.
Westpac Institutional Bank mining analyst Graham Smith says the abolition of the capital gains tax discount could hit junior minerals explorers because investors in this sector tend to profit from capital gains rather than dividends. With the loss last year of the Junior Minerals Exploration Incentive, which allowed exploration companies to funnel tax losses back to investors, explorers are now totally reliant on attracting investors from capital growth from exploration.
“Even at the larger end of town, mining companies tend to have lower dividend payout ratios than other comparable industries because mines are depleting assets,” Smith says.
“So, it'll be interesting to see what those changes mean for investor appetite and whether it necessitates changes at the company level, in terms of paying dividends versus reinvesting in continued growth.”
The Government has provided scant detail on how the strategic reserve of critical minerals will operate. In some other countries, governments are the offtake of choice for projects and provide guaranteed contracts with floor prices, which de-risks operations. “If it works similarly here that’ll certainly be a positive for the development of the industry in Australia,” Smith says.
Westpac oil and gas analyst Grant Jepson says the fuel security plan is a good start. However, a holistic approach to energy security is needed, with the development of new domestic oil & gas supply equally as important. How do we incentivise investment in new supply – providing certainty for investors. Building energy resilience requires surety of supply – “I would argue simply increasing storage capacity to 50 days doesn’t materially improve resilience, we are still reliant on imports for almost 100% of our needs” he says. He says that while the domestic gas reserve is a welcome development, the devil will be in the detail. “You still need a secure supply – so it doesn't matter how much money you're putting aside,” he says. “I do question how much you know what, what level resilience it actually does provide longer term.”
He says that while the domestic gas reserve is a welcome development, the devil will be in the detail.
Electricity and renewables
- 50 per cent capital gains tax discount for foreign investors in renewable energy projects until 30 June 2030.
A capital gains tax discount for foreign investors in Australian renewable energy projects could boost development, says Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Pranoy Modi.
“At the margins this should increase investment and capex. It should increase jobs and ultimately tax that goes back to the government through an operating project,” he says.
Infrastructure
This year’s Budget continues to place emphasis on infrastructure spending like previous years, and it remains an important part of Government spending, with projects including Melbourne’s suburban rail loop receiving additional funding.
The Budget allocates AUD 8.6 billion in funding for new projects included in the Federal Government's Infrastructure Investment Program over 11 years from 2025-26.
- AUD 3.8 billion over four years from 2026–27 in additional funding for Suburban Rail Loop East in Melbourne.
- AUD 1.8 billion over six years from 2026–27 in equity for the Australian Rail Track Corporation to invest in its interstate rail network.
- The High-Speed Rail Authority has been allocated AUD 660 million over three years from 2025-26 to progress development activities between Sydney and Newcastle
Westpac Institutional Bank analyst Salil Akolkar says additional funding to the Australian Rail Track Corporation will fund resilience from bushfires, floods and derailments and help shore up rail freight corridors.
Against this, says Akolkar, the rail sector will be disappointed by the termination of the Inland Rail project at Parkes in NSW, instead of stretching all the way from Melbourne to Brisbane, which would have brought down logistics costs on the East Coast freight corridor. The link’s role in reducing road traffic from freight could have also helped Australia reduce its transport emissions.
Given the geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain disruptions which we have seen post COVID, the budget has provided a ‘temporary fuel and other materials disruption’ slippage adjustment of AUD 4.1 billion to the Infrastructure Investment Program from 2026-2029.
Agriculture
The Budget was broadly positive for the agriculture sector, says Westpac Institutional Bank agribusiness analyst Scott Warburton.
Primary production income will be exempt from the minimum 30 per cent tax on income from discretionary trusts. This will support intergenerational farm succession by reducing transfer frictions and exit risk, helping young farmers take over from an ageing cohort and prevent further decline in Australian farmer numbers, Warburton says.
Likewise, the National Fuel Security Plan and its role in protecting supplies of diesel and fertiliser will be a welcome development, to improve resilience to geopolitical disruptions.
The industry analysts quoted in this article are from Westpac Institutional Bank and are not independent research analysts.
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