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ForeX Focus
The recent run of events are doing a pretty good job rubberstamping AUD/USD’s 0.64-0.66 Jan-April ranges. Though, with Powell underscoring that rates are sufficiently restrictive and US yields now less likely to push higher if data show persistent wage and price stickiness, AUD/USD looks ripe to spend some time at the higher end of recent ranges.
By
Richard Franulovich
,
Imre Speizer
,
Robert Rennie
&
&
Tim Riddell
May 02 2024
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What's Priced In
Monetary Policy Watch
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NAB 1H24: Earnings stabilise with risk in check
NAB reported 1H24 cash earnings of AUD3.55bn, 12.8% down on the pcp (but a more contained 3.1% below 2H23), however the result was broadly in line with expectations. Earnings momentum has slowed on a combination of lower lending growth, ongoing margin pressure, variable non-interest income (lower trading revenue in this case) and cost inflation. Despite this, the underlying performance in the last half presented signs of resilience.
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Australia’s trade in goods account, March
Surplus narrows to 3+ year low of $5.0bn as imports jump. Balance: +$5.0bn, previous +$6.6bn. Imports 4.2% Exports 0.1%
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Australian dwelling approvals: modest rise
March 1.9%mth, –2.2%yr. Delicately positioned, in line with 2023 cycle lows.
- NZD FX Weekly
A weekly update on the market for NZD crosses, including outlooks.
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Strategy Views on a Page
A summary of Westpac Strategy Group's key market views
May 02 2024
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First cut by the Fed is September at the earliest
Current and expected risks warrant the FOMC holding off on the first cut until September and then carefully assessing lingering inflation risks as each subsequent step is taken. A low of 3.375% is expected for fed funds mid-2026, a modestly contractionary rate.
- First Impressions: NZ building consents, March 2024
Residential consent issuance looks like it’s finding a base, but construction activity is still set to remain weak for some time.
20
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