- Westpac IQ
- Economics
- Australian national accounts, September quarter 2024.
Australian national accounts, September quarter 2024.
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16:30 December 04 2024
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The Australian economy continued to tread water in the September quarter. At 0.3%qtr and 0.8%yr, growth in GDP was below Westpac's and the market's expectations. Increased government spending drove all of the gain in the quarter. New private demand flatlined, with household consumption and new business investment surprising to the downside.
Click her fore the full report 'Australian national accounts, September quarter 2024' (PDF 1019KB)
The overall picture for the Australian economy is soft, with very little momentum on the private side. The public sector remains the primary locus of growth. New public demand expanded by 2.2% in the September quarter (4.1%yr) and now represents 27½% of total GDP, a new record. Both public consumption and investment expanded solidly.
Meanwhile private final demand was essentially unchanged in the quarter. The expected modest recovery in private sector demand did not eventuate. The Australian household sector continues to be squeezed, with disposable income growth remaining surprisingly weak given the tax cuts in the quarter. This may go some way towards explaining the previously reported weak spending response to the tax cuts.
Household consumption was flat in the quarter, in line with the RBA’s stated expectation but weaker than our read of the partial data. The increase in household saving in the quarter almost completely offset the extra disposable income resulting from the Stage 3 tax cut.
With aggregate demand growth well below trend for an extended period, any reasonable estimate of the output gap will have narrowed further. The further slowing in the various measures of price and cost growth in the accounts arguably points to the output gap having closed.
While the overall productivity outcome in the quarter disappointed, our assessment is that this is explained by the shift to non-market industries and the decline in mining output, and that reasonable trend growth in supply capacity is being achieved.
Click on above PDF link for full report
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