July labour force preview
June’s bounce in employment was matched by firmer labour supply, leaving unemployment broadly steady. That looks consistent with balance for now, but we still expect slack to emerge later this year. The recent sharp lift in underemployment suggests this may already be happening.
- The June LFS surprised materially to the upside. Employment jumped +76.3k, but the strength was matched by a sharp lift in participation, leaving the unemployment rate broadly steady at 4.4%.
- June’s mix of stronger employment, higher participation and a flat-to-slightly higher unemployment rate is consistent with a labour market that is broadly in balance, with labour demand and supply moving broadly in step.
- We still expect labour market slack to emerge later this year, as labour force growth continues to outstrip employment growth, seeing the unemployment rate move into the high 4’s by year-end.
- The recent rise in underemployment is worth watching, with both official and supplementary measures pointing to a broader lift in spare capacity that could foreshadow higher measured unemployment down the track
- For July, we have pencilled in a smaller lift in employment of 15k lift and a slight tick down in participation to 66.9% as some of last month’s noise fades, leaving the unemployment rate broadly steady at 4.4%.
June LFS: employment bounced on firmer labour supply
Employment surprised materially to the upside in June, jumping +76.3k following a couple of volatile readings over April (–38.6k) and May (+44.0k). The strength in employment was matched by a sizeable lift in labour supply, which drove a 0.3ppt bounce in the participation rate to 67.0%. That was also well above all analyst expectations, marking the highest participation in over a year. Since the increase in employment was matched by new entrants into the labour force, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%, though at the second decimal place it edged slightly higher (4.37% to 4.43%).
Explaining at least some of this surprise, the ABS noted that in May there was a larger than usual group who had a job lined up but had not started working – come June they had moved into the labour force and started work. While we do not have exact figures on this dynamic, it helps explain at least some of the reason why the unemployment rate did not fall, as the increase in jobs was largely matched by a parallel increase in labour supply.
Labour market is broadly balanced for now
As detailed by Chief Economist Luci Ellis, an upside surprise on participation and employment correlating with flat-to-up unemployment rate is exactly what we should expect to see when the labour market is broadly in balance.
In a labour market with some slack (as was largely the case before the pandemic), a stronger-than-expected lift in employment would usually pull people out of unemployment, so the unemployment rate would tend to fall. Participation might rise a little, but the main adjustment is through fewer people being unemployed.
In a very tight labour market, employers are constrained by labour supply – they can only add workers if more people are willing or able to enter the labour force. In that case, stronger employment would need to be matched by stronger participation, while unemployment would be more likely to hold steady or decline.
June’s result is an example of something in between these two scenarios. Employment and participation both rose strongly, but unemployment also edged higher. That is not a sign of an ‘overly’ tight labour market, but it is not clear evidence of outright weakness either. It suggests that labour demand and supply are moving broadly in step, with monthly noise determining whether the unemployment rate nudges up or down.
Slack to emerge later this year
Over the second half of this year, we expect the unemployment rate to continue drifting higher as growth in labour supply outstrips labour demand. At present, employment is growing at an annual pace of around 1.1%yr after smoothing with a three-month average. That is well below the long-run average of 1.9%yr and the current pace of working-age population growth (1.8%yr). High inflation, recent interest rate rises and lingering uncertainty makes for a challenging hiring environment, as evinced by recent business surveys.
While a softer economy and employment backdrop would typically discourage some individuals in their search for work, added pressure from the cost-of-living and interest rate rises acts as a counterweight, drawing more people into the labour market. Add in the slower-moving positive structural forces around rising female and older age participation, and the overall participation rate looks set to remain at least broadly stable near-term. Even with a steady participation rate, labour force growth can outrun employment growth, seeing the unemployment rate move into the high 4’s later this year.
Rising underemployment is a signal worth watching
Recently, we have also been highlighting the rapid rise in underemployment – those who are employed but are available for and seeking additional hours of work. Over the past two months, the headline underemploymen ratio (underemployed-to-employed) has jumped 0.6ppts to 6.8%, the highest rate in over two years.
Additional measures of underemployment in the ‘u-series’ publication corroborate this signal and provide more clues on the nature of the increase. So far this year, the ‘broadest’ measure of underemployment (UD-4) has risen 0.8ppts from 9.3% to 10.1%, while the ‘narrowest’ (UD-1) has surged 1.3ppts from 2.9% to 4.2%. This not only tells us that there has been an increase in total underemployment in the broadest sense, but there has also been shift within the underemployed – more people say they are currently available and are actively searching for more hours.
The lift in underemployment should be watched closely, as it may be a pointer to higher measured unemployment down track, particularly if it is providing a clearer signal on the effect of higher cost-of-living pressures on increased labour supply
What are we expecting for July?
For July, we have pencilled in a lift in employment of 15k, and with the participation rate ticking down slightly to 66.9%, we think the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.4%.
Our expectation for a slight decrease in the participation rate has less to do with our view on the near-term stability and longer-term uptrend we envisage, but more to do with the fact that the LFS is noisy. Recall that the participation rate bounced 0.3ppt in June, partly driven by a group that already had an attachment to a job the month prior but were simply not counted as being part of the labour force. There was likely some other noise in the mix too, and in line with the survey’s natural month-to-month volatility, a slight downtick is a likely outcome.
Rather of focusing on the employment change, we recommend watching the employment-to-population ratio. The July LFS, being the first month of the quarter, will require the ABS to update its projections on the current pace of population growth, which are then used to ‘scale up’ the survey results for employment to a national level. These projections still appear to capture some upward bias, resulting in downward revisions to employment growth the next month (in August) once the ABS can re-benchmark to official population data. The employment-to-population ratio is immune to such noise, so it will provide a clearer reading on the day.
Stay informed with Westpac IQ
Get the latest reports straight to your inbox.
Related articles
Browse topics
Disclaimer
©2026 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.
Things you should know
We respect your privacy: You can view the New Zealand Privacy Policy here, or the Australian Group Privacy Statement here. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.
This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.
Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision.
This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts.
Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument.
Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that (a) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material; (b) this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate; (c) to the best of the author’s knowledge, they are not in receipt of inside information and this material does not contain inside information; and (d) no other part of the Westpac Group has made any attempt to influence this material.
Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.
Additional country disclosures:
Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac ("WNZL"). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz.
Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Fiji: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac Fiji are available from www.westpac.com.fj © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia and registered as a branch in Fiji. The liability of its members is limited.
Papua New Guinea: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac PNG are available from www.westpac.com.pg © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia. Westpac is represented in Papua New Guinea by Westpac Bank - PNG - Limited. The liability of its members is limited.
U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). In accordance with APRA's Prudential Standard 222 'Association with Related Entities', Westpac does not stand behind WCM other than as provided for in certain legal agreements between Westpac and WCM and obligations of WCM do not represent liabilities of Westpac.
This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.
The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.
UK: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request.
This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. Rather, this communication is being made only to and is directed at (a) those persons falling within the definition of Investment Professionals (set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) those persons falling within the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this communication or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this communication is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party.
European Economic Area (“EEA”): This material may be distributed to you by either: (i) Westpac directly, or (ii) Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) under a sub-licensing arrangement. WEG has not edited or otherwise modified the content of this material. WEG is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac. Any product or service made available by WEG does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WEG). All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WEG.
This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.
Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. Such disclosure fulfils certain additional information requirements of MAR and associated delegated legislation and by accepting this communication you acknowledge that you are aware of the existence of such additional disclosure and its contents.
To the extent this communication comprises an investment recommendation it is classified as non-independent research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and therefore constitutes a marketing communication. Further, this communication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.