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Westpac Strategy Antipodean Daily Wrap
Jack and Jill.
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Santos: XRG Consortium withdraws its bid
Santos announced that the XRG Consortium withdrew its indicative proposal to acquire Santos, ahead of its exclusive due diligence period which had previously been extended until tomorrow (19-Sep). The initial market reaction has seen equity retrace all of the gains post the acquisition announcement in June (equity opened around 12% lower today and continues to trade around AUD6.70/share as we write), however credit spreads have stabilised only ~10bps wider on the day.
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August Labour Force: downside surprise
Employment: –5.4k (from +26.5k). Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (from 4.2%). Participation Rate: 66.8% (from 67.0%).
- Trade idea: short NZD/USD
Trade idea: short NZD/USD
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NZ: Change of OCR call – RBNZ to cut 50bp in October
We now think the RBNZ will cut 50bp in October and 25bp in November (previously we expected 25bp cuts at both of those meetings). This change follows weaker than expected GDP growth in Q2.
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First impressions: NZ GDP, June quarter 2025 - Even weaker than expected
New Zealand’s GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, substantially worse than expected. The surprises were narrowly concentrated in areas that are unlikely to respond to further interest rate cuts.
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The FOMC aim to balance shifting risks
Risks to the outlook for US inflation and the labour market have moved closer to balance, warranting another step towards a neutral stance. However, uncertainty remains high.
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Around the Grounds
Today’s note includes comments on Santos, BHP, Macquarie, Wisr and MTF.
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FinanceAM
The FOMC cut the policy rate by 25bp, with dot-plots signalling two more cuts this year. That was as markets had priced, although the press conference was not as dovish as expected. Following spikes in both directions, th US dollar and bond yields are slightly higher.
20
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