RBA and inflation view: June hold affirmed, increases still ahead
We affirm our previously published view that the RBA will remain on hold in June, but increase rates in coming months given inflation risks.
We affirm our existing expectation that the RBA Monetary Policy Board (MPB) will hold the cash rate steady at its June meeting next week. Although inflation remains above target, the previous three rate increases have given the MPB time to assess cross-cutting trends of weak consumers and housing markets versus high inflation pressures and a secular boom in data centres and related investment. The recent run of inflation and labour market data has been a bit mixed, supporting the case for a pause.
We update our inflation forecasts below, ahead of the release of our June Market Outlook publication later today. A lower peak for oil, and thus petrol and diesel, prices lowers the peak for headline inflation from 5.0% to 4.7%. Trimmed mean inflation is revised marginally lower across Q2, Q3 and Q4, lowering the peak in the year-ended rate from 4.0%yr to 3.8%yr. We continue to see significant pass-through from higher fuel costs into some other prices. In addition, the larger-than-expected increase in award wages will add a little to some market services components of the CPI, where labour costs are particularly important and many workers are on awards.
This slightly lower track for underlying inflation is still higher than the RBA’s own forecasts. If we are right about the inflation profile from here, the RBA will be surprised on the upside. We therefore retain our view that further rate hikes will occur in the following meetings (August and September). This is consistent with the RBA’s priority to get inflation down. While ever inflation trends are this far away from the 2.5% target midpoint and showing little tendency to decline, the MPB will regard soft outcomes for the consumer and housing sectors as being a necessary part of the transmission of monetary policy.
The risks are clearly on the downside, though, in the sense that zero or one further hike is much more likely than three hikes. A more extended pause would be associated with a smaller overall hiking cycle.
While markets are increasingly pricing a faster resolution, our base case for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf oil supply normalisation remains broadly unchanged. We continue to assume shipping rises to around 10% of normal levels by end-June, with full normalisation not occurring until mid-2027.
Q2 average Brent spot and dated prices are tracking below our baseline assumptions of US$110 and US$125 respectively, reflecting a decline in supply risk premia following the ceasefire and a less tight crude balance than anticipated. Stronger-than-expected US exports and weaker Chinese import demand have provided a near-term buffer, though prices have remained volatile amid shifting headlines.
We have lowered our price assumptions through Q2–Q4 2026, with the largest downgrade in Q3 (–US$13/bbl) and a smaller adjustment in Q4, while leaving 2027 broadly unchanged. Prices are likely to fall, potentially below US$90/bbl, on confirmation of a deal and the resumption of shipping, before it becomes evident that the pace of normalisation in traffic and Gulf production will be gradual. The Q2 buffer from US exports is unlikely to persist, while some recovery in Chinese demand is expected. Beyond 2026, we continue to assume a gradual normalisation in shipping and production, alongside a rebuild in global strategic reserves from H2 2027.
Petrol and diesel price assumptions have been revised materially lower across Q2–Q4 2026, reflecting the softer oil price backdrop. The largest adjustments occur in Q3, where petrol is down around 20c/l and diesel close to 100c/l, averaging $2.05/l and $2.39/l respectively.
Following on from these revisions, we have lowered the near-term inflation profile which is partly offset by a stronger wages outlook feeding into market services.
Headline inflation is expected to reach 4.4%yr in Q2 and peak later at 4.7%yr in Q4 (previously 5.0%yr in Q3). Base effects see a more gradual easing thereafter in year-ended terms, with inflation reaching 2.8%yr by end-2027 and 2.2%yr by end-2028.
Trimmed mean inflation has also been revised lower, reaching 3.7%yr in Q2 before peaking at 3.8%yr in Q3 and holding through Q4 (down from 4.0%yr). The quarterly path for the remainder of 2026 is 1.0%, 1.1% and 0.9% – the H2 2026 profile sits slightly above that implied by the RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts. Trimmed mean inflation is expected to return to the RBA’s target band by end-2027 (3.0%yr) and ease to 2.4%yr by end-2028.
While the near-term profile is lower, the risk of second-round effects from higher fuel costs to broader prices remains. Current policy measures are dampening the pass-through, but with most of these set to expire by the end of June, the bulk of the impact from higher freight costs still lies ahead. Additionally, the impact of higher fertiliser costs will likely feed through in the second half of this year with industry surveys showing growers are scaling back planting schedules in response to higher input costs. Drier weather conditions, with the risk of a more severe El Niño, also adds upside pressure.
They key downside risks to our profile stem from weaker consumer demand that limits firms’ ability to pass through higher costs and a faster-than-expected normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The RBA faces a difficult set of trade-offs in its near-term monetary policy decisions. As well as the more benign developments in energy prices and the conflict more broadly, some domestic data releases have been softer than generally expected. Consumer spending looks to have stalled, tax changes have induced uncertainty in the housing market, and sentiment surveys have weakened. Weak GDP reads are likely in coming quarters.
At the same time, Australia started the year with inflation too high, and the second-round inflation response to higher energy prices is becoming more evident in the data. While the RBA has already tightened policy in response to the lift in inflation that pre-dated the Middle East conflict, business surveys and other information suggest that the pass-through of higher energy prices to other prices has been significant and front-loaded. Contention for resources to construct the pipeline of data centres – an investment boom largely impervious to interest rates – will add to cost pressures.
We continue to expect that the RBA will pause at its June meeting as it assesses the data flow. However, we believe it will remain focused on getting inflation back down to target and will be less swayed by some of this softer data than some observers might assume. Indeed, it is likely that it views the softer data as being a necessary part of the transmission of restrictive monetary policy. Trimmed mean inflation is drifting up, and even after revising the outlook for the somewhat better oil price trajectory, our base case remains higher than the RBA’s May forecasts through the rest of this year. Pass-through is starting to become evident in categories such as home-building costs, dining out and postal and courier services.
Because our inflation forecast is above the RBA’s most recent published forecast, it implies that the RBA will receive an upside surprise in coming months. This implies further rate hikes as the second-round inflation impact of the energy price shock emerge. Given the weaker outlook for the household sector, risks are skewed to the downside, in the sense that zero or one hike from here is much more likely than three hikes. We still regard our two-hike track as the most appropriate base case view, given the inflation outlook.
Stay informed with Westpac IQ
Get the latest reports straight to your inbox.
Related articles
Australia and NZ Weekly 8 June 2026
Australia and NZ Weekly 8 June 2026
Lumps, bumps and technology waves
Browse topics
Disclaimer
©2026 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA brands, collectively, “Westpac”). References to the “Westpac Group” are to Westpac and its subsidiaries and includes the directors, employees and representatives of Westpac and its subsidiaries.
Things you should know
We respect your privacy: You can view the New Zealand Privacy Policy here, or the Australian Group Privacy Statement here. Each time someone visits our site, data is captured so that we can accurately evaluate the quality of our content and make improvements for you. We may at times use technology to capture data about you to help us to better understand you and your needs, including potentially for the purposes of assessing your individual reading habits and interests to allow us to provide suggestions regarding other reading material which may be suitable for you.
This information, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright of the Westpac Group. None of the material, nor its contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied of distributed to any other party without the prior written permission of the Westpac Group.
Disclaimer
This information has been prepared by Westpac and is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended to reflect any recommendation or financial advice and investment decisions should not be based on it. This information does not constitute an offer, a solicitation of an offer, or an inducement to subscribe for, purchase or sell any financial instrument or to enter into a legally binding contract. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice. Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. We recommend that you seek your own independent legal or financial advice before proceeding with any investment decision.
This information may contain material provided by third parties. While such material is published with the necessary permission none of Westpac or its related entities accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Although we have made every effort to ensure this information is free from error, none of Westpac or its related entities warrants the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of this information, or otherwise endorses it in any way. Except where contrary to law, Westpac Group intend by this notice to exclude liability for this information. This information is subject to change without notice and none of Westpac or its related entities is under any obligation to update this information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. This information may contain or incorporate by reference forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “predict”, “continue”, “assume”, “positioned”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “shall”, “risk” and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, nor are forecasts of future performance. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which any forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from any forecasts.
Conflicts of Interest: In the normal course of offering banking products and services to its clients, the Westpac Group may act in several capacities (including issuer, market maker, underwriter, distributor, swap counterparty and calculation agent) simultaneously with respect to a financial instrument, giving rise to potential conflicts of interest which may impact the performance of a financial instrument. The Westpac Group may at any time transact or hold a position (including hedging and trading positions) for its own account or the account of a client in any financial instrument which may impact the performance of that financial instrument.
Author(s) disclaimer and declaration: The author(s) confirms that (a) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any views or (if applicable) recommendations expressed in this material; (b) this material accurately reflects his/her personal views about the financial products, companies or issuers (if applicable) and is based on sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate; (c) to the best of the author’s knowledge, they are not in receipt of inside information and this material does not contain inside information; and (d) no other part of the Westpac Group has made any attempt to influence this material.
Further important information regarding sustainability-related content: This material may contain statements relating to environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics. These are subject to known and unknown risks, and there are significant uncertainties, limitations, risks and assumptions in the metrics, modelling, data, scenarios, reporting and analysis on which the statements rely. In particular, these areas are rapidly evolving and maturing, and there are variations in approaches and common standards and practice, as well as uncertainty around future related policy and legislation. Some material may include information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. There is a risk that the analysis, estimates, judgements, assumptions, views, models, scenarios or projections used may turn out to be incorrect. These risks may cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. The ESG-related statements in this material do not constitute advice, nor are they guarantees or predictions of future performance, and Westpac gives no representation, warranty or assurance (including as to the quality, accuracy or completeness of the statements). You should seek your own independent advice.
Additional country disclosures:
Australia: Westpac holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (No. 233714). You can access Westpac’s Financial Services Guide here or request a copy from your Westpac point of contact. To the extent that this information contains any general advice, it has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the advice.
New Zealand: In New Zealand, Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac (NZ division) or Westpac New Zealand Limited (company number 1763882), the New Zealand incorporated subsidiary of Westpac ("WNZL"). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz.
Singapore: This material has been prepared and issued for distribution in Singapore to institutional investors, accredited investors and expert investors (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations) only. Recipients of this material in Singapore should contact Westpac Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Fiji: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac Fiji are available from www.westpac.com.fj © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia and registered as a branch in Fiji. The liability of its members is limited.
Papua New Guinea: Unless otherwise specified, the products and services for Westpac PNG are available from www.westpac.com.pg © Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141. This information does not take your personal circumstances into account and before acting on it you should consider the appropriateness of the information for your financial situation. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 is incorporated in NSW Australia. Westpac is represented in Papua New Guinea by Westpac Bank - PNG - Limited. The liability of its members is limited.
U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licensed branch, regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. The services and products referenced above are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”). Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). In accordance with APRA's Prudential Standard 222 'Association with Related Entities', Westpac does not stand behind WCM other than as provided for in certain legal agreements between Westpac and WCM and obligations of WCM do not represent liabilities of Westpac.
This communication is provided for distribution to U.S. institutional investors in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 under the Exchange Act and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors in the United States. WCM is the U.S. distributor of this communication and accepts responsibility for the contents of this communication. Transactions by U.S. customers of any securities referenced herein should be effected through WCM. All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WCM. If you would like to speak to someone regarding any security mentioned herein, please contact WCM on +1 212 389 1269. Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments mentioned in this communication may present certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the SEC in the United States. Information on such non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Non-U.S. companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect in the United States. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related derivative instruments denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related derivative instruments.
The author of this communication is employed by Westpac and is not registered or qualified as a research analyst, representative, or associated person of WCM or any other U.S. broker-dealer under the rules of FINRA, any other U.S. self-regulatory organisation, or the laws, rules or regulations of any State. Unless otherwise specifically stated, the views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may differ from the information, views or analysis expressed by Westpac and/or its affiliates.
UK: The London branch of Westpac is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and limited regulation by the PRA (Financial Services Register number: 124586). The London branch of Westpac is registered at Companies House as a branch established in the United Kingdom (Branch No. BR000106). Details about the extent of the regulation of Westpac’s London branch by the PRA are available from us on request.
This communication is not being made to or distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. Rather, this communication is being made only to and is directed at (a) those persons falling within the definition of Investment Professionals (set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) those persons falling within the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (set out in Article 49(2)of the Order; (c) other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order or (d) any persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be made (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this communication or any of its contents. In the same way, the information contained in this communication is intended for “eligible counterparties” and “professional clients” as defined by the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not intended for “retail clients”. Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on the information in this communication to any third party.
European Economic Area (“EEA”): This material may be distributed to you by either: (i) Westpac directly, or (ii) Westpac Europe GmbH (“WEG”) under a sub-licensing arrangement. WEG has not edited or otherwise modified the content of this material. WEG is authorised in Germany by the Federal Financial Supervision Authority (‘BaFin’) and subject to its regulation. WEG’s supervisory authorities are BaFin and the German Federal Bank (‘Deutsche Bundesbank’). WEG is registered with the commercial register (‘Handelsregister’) of the local court of Frankfurt am Main under registration number HRB 118483. In accordance with APRA’s Prudential Standard 222 ‘Association with Related Entities’, Westpac does not stand behind WEG other than as provided for in certain legal agreements (a risk transfer, sub-participation and collateral agreement) between Westpac and WEG and obligations of WEG do not represent liabilities of Westpac. Any product or service made available by WEG does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WEG). All disclaimers set out with respect to Westpac apply equally to WEG.
This communication is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
This communication contains general commentary, research, and market colour. The communication does not constitute investment advice. The material may contain an ‘investment recommendation’ and/or ‘information recommending or suggesting an investment’, both as defined in Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (including as applicable in the United Kingdom) (“MAR”). In accordance with the relevant provisions of MAR, reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material has been objectively presented and that interests or conflicts of interest of the sender concerning the financial instruments to which that information relates have been disclosed.
Investment recommendations must be read alongside the specific disclosure which accompanies them and the general disclosure which can be found here. Such disclosure fulfils certain additional information requirements of MAR and associated delegated legislation and by accepting this communication you acknowledge that you are aware of the existence of such additional disclosure and its contents.
To the extent this communication comprises an investment recommendation it is classified as non-independent research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and therefore constitutes a marketing communication. Further, this communication is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.