Commodities Update August 2026
Most commodities fell in July with our broadest commodities index declining -1.8%mth as the geopolitical risk premium that had built through much of the year continued to unwind. Thermal coal led the declines, falling -10.2%mth, while aluminium fell -8.2%, lithium (spodumene) -6.3%mth, coking coal -4.7%mth and gold -3.7%mth. Brent averaged -1.5%mth lower despite briefly exceeding US$100/bbl as hostilities resurfaced. Copper was broadly unchanged (-0.1%mth), while LNG was the notable exception, rising 10.1%mth.
The following is based on text from the August Market Outlook (PDF 4MB)
For more details of our longer-term forecasts see August Commodity Forecasts
Most commodities fell in July as the geopolitical risk premium that had built through much of the year continued to unwind, although a brief resurgence in hostilities highlighted the fragility of any ceasefire and saw oil briefly surpass US$100/bbl. Our broadest commodities index declined 1.8%mth, led by thermal coal, which unwound June’s gains and fell 10.2%mth as supply improved and energy security concerns receded. Aluminium declined 8.2%, lithium (spodumene) fell 6.3% and coking coal eased 4.7%mth. Gold softened 3.7% as renewed conflict heightened inflation concerns and expectations of further global rate rises. Brent averaged 1.5%mth lower over the month, while copper was broadly unchanged (‑0.1%mth). LNG bucked the broader trend, rising 10.1%mth on ongoing market tightness.
Oil prices experience a volatile month
Brent prices saw sharp volatility over the past month. Prices entered July at pre‑conflict levels as the MoU held, which saw a surge of vessels exit the Strait and the risk premia unwind. Renewed conflict, which we had previously flagged as a key risk, later constrained traffic through the Strait once again. Houthi attacks on Saudi crude exports in the Red Sea added to market concerns. As a result, Brent briefly rose above US$100/bbl for the first time since May in late July. On net, Brent averaged -1.5%mth lower in July at US$83.0/bbl, in line with our forecast. Prices have since risen from this level, although we continue to expect volatility, as key differences between the US and Iran remain unresolved and the conflcit evolves. While flare‑ups are likely to be short‑lived, allowing periods of optimism to re‑emerge, we expect supply and demand fundamentals to increasingly reassert themselves as the primary drivers of prices over coming months.
Notably, inventories remain very low. OECD government stocks gained 2mb in July according to EIA data – the first rise since the start of the conflict. However, they remain 179mb below the level recorded in February, with the need to rebuild these depleted reserves expected to support demand going forward. China is also likely to become a more important source of demand. Lower Chinese imports have been a key buffer against the global supply shock, although this support is unlikely to persist. In July, China accounted for just 13% of seaborne crude imports, down from 19% a year earlier, while independent refinery operating rates remain historically low at just above 50%. We expect Chinese demand to stabilise through Q4 as lower prices encourage inventory building and refiners begin restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, providing a floor for prices. Overall, we expect Brent to average US$83/bbl in Q3, before softening slightly to an average of $81/bbl in Q4. The softer Q4 profile represents a US$3/bbl downgrade to our previous publication, reflecting the continued unwinding of geopolitical risk as President Trump signals a preference for economic rather than military pressure on Iran. Volatility will remain a feature, with much depending on the durability of any ceasefire and the pace of normalisation in shipping through the Strait, as captured in the two scenarios we published in June.
LNG markets remain tight
LNG prices, unlike oil, continue to hold at recent highs. Damage to the world's largest LNG export complex at Ras Laffan in Qatar, the country's inability to divert flows around the Strait of Hormuz, limited vessel availability and constrained spare liquefaction capacity continue to weigh on supply. Coupled with strong summer cooling demand across Northeast Asia, Japanese LNG prices rose 10.1%mth in July, with average prices reaching US$19.0/mmbtu - around 75% above pre‑conflict levels.
We maintain our expected peak in Japanese LNG prices to average $18.5/mmbtu in the September quarter. A supply recovery is expected to remain constrained, with prices unlikely to return to pre‑conflict levels until 2028. Domestically, however, the Australian gas market remains relatively insulated, supported by the FY2027 Federal Budget's domestic gas reservation scheme, which requires exporters to supply the equivalent of 20% of gas exports to the Australian market.
Chinese demand for coal cools
Newcastle thermal coal prices hovered around US$130/t for much of July, a marked 10%mth decline from the US$144/t average recorded in June. Key sources of temporary price support have faded, with weather disruptions in Newcastle easing and supporting a normalisation in cargo loading volumes. Heavy typhoon-related rainfall across China also dampened summer cooling demand, weakening a key source of consumption, while ample domestic supply in India reduced demand for seaborne cargoes. Despite this, prices remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels. LNG markets continue to support the relative cost competitiveness of thermal coal, while shifting energy security priorities across Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have driven increased coal procurement as a hedge against LNG supply disruption. While this demand impulse is unlikely to offset softer Chinese and Indian imports, broader Northern Hemisphere summer cooling demand should continue to provide support. Given the softer global demand backdrop, we now expect Newcastle thermal coal prices to average US$130/t in the September quarter before easing towards US$120/t through 2027. Over the longer term, prices are expected to rise as ongoing demand outpaces supply growth, with mine depletion, regulatory hurdles, community opposition and financing constraints limiting new capacity, particularly in Australia.
Queensland premium low-vol coking coal prices fell 4.7%mth in July. The relative outperformance of metallurgical coal compared with thermal coal reflects the ongoing supply disruption caused by the gas explosion at a coking coal mine in Shanxi province in late May, which led to production suspensions and inspections across Chinese coal operations. We expect this disruption to continue unwinding through August, placing downward pressure on prices. While a recovery in Indian steelmaking demand following the monsoon season should provide some support in September, this is likely to arrive too late to materially slow the pace of price declines during the quarter. Combined with ample Australian seaborne supply, we forecast premium low-vol coking coal prices to average US$205/t in the September quarter before moderating further into 2027.
Iron ore under pressure as supply builds
Iron ore prices (62% Fe index) softened 2.4%mth in July, recording a monthly average of US$99.6/t - the first full monthly average below US$100/t since July 2025. The weakness reflects strong seaborne supply across major exporting regions, including Australia, Brazil and the continued ramp-up of Simandou in Guinea. At the same time, the Shanxi mining disaster has kept coking coal markets relatively tight, further compressing steelmaker margins that were already under pressure from intense competition between mills, weighing particularly on demand for lower-grade ores. These weaker conditions are reflected in China’s steel sector PMI, which has remained in contractionary territory since April, while iron ore inventories at Chinese ports remain historically elevated. Markets also looked to July’s Politburo meeting for support but were again left underwhelmed, with policymakers focusing on stability and anti-involution measures rather than targeted stimulus for the steel sector.
While recent CMRG restrictions on some Fortescue inventories held at ports may provide modest support, the impact is likely to be limited given abundant stockpiles. More meaningful near-term support is expected to come from elevated capesize freight rates, which have returned to early June levels on the back of ongoing Middle East tensions, strong iron ore export volumes and Typhoon Dolphin reducing fleet availability. Stronger Indian demand linked to infrastructure investment and industrial activity may also help offset some of the weakness in China. As a result, we expect the 62% Fe index to average US$100/t in the September quarter, US$2/t below our previous update, before easing to US$97/t in the December quarter.
The medium-term outlook is becoming increasingly challenging, with surplus conditions expected to emerge. Supply-side pressures are building as new low-cost output from Simandou enters the market, with Wood Mackenzie estimating export volumes could more than double to 40Mt in 2027. Persistently high inventories in China and softer global steel demand, as major economies contend with the effects of elevated energy costs, are expected to add further downside pressure. Increased scrap usage and the ongoing structural decline in Chinese steel production are also eroding underlying demand, with growth in India and South-East Asia, supported by urbanisation and population growth, providing only a partial offset. We therefore expect iron ore prices to soften further, averaging around US$83/t in the December quarter of 2027, as surplus conditions become more evident.
Gold recovers as rate fears moderate
Gold continued to soften through July, falling 3.7%mth as markets weighed the inflationary implications of the Middle East conflict and the prospect that central banks may need to accelerate rate hiking cycles. As a non‑yielding asset, gold has faced a notable rotation as higher real yields have become increasingly attractive, with safe‑haven demand proving insufficient to offset this dynamic. However, more favourable US data has since reversed this trend. The US FOMC voted 9–3 to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at its end‑July meeting. Combined with the absence of forward guidance, markets were left uncertain about the future path of rates. The subsequent US CPI release in mid‑August provided a benign result that was broadly in line with expectations, prompting markets to pare near‑term expectations for further Fed tightening. As a result, gold has strengthened through August, rising to above US$4,400/oz by mid‑month.
Given July's weakness and still‑elevated real yields, we have moderately downgraded our outlook, with the September quarter average now expected at US$4,350/oz, a 4.6% downgrade from our previous publication. Further support is likely to emerge should progress towards a more durable resolution of the conflict materialise. A period of lower volatility and easing real yields would provide scope for prices to stabilise and encourage a gradual return of longer‑term investors. Additional support may arise around the US midterm elections, where safe‑haven demand could strengthen. We therefore expect modest gains through the remainder of 2026, followed by a period of consolidation in early 2027, in part as brownfield expansions at existing operations lift supply in response to recent high prices. Over the longer term, structural support is expected to persist, underpinned by ongoing Asian demand and central bank buying. The World Gold Council's 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey found that 45% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings, up from 43% a year earlier.
Copper buoyed by COMEX inventory building
Copper prices continued to track sideways in July, falling 0.1%mth. A resurgence in the Middle East conflict added to uncertainty, weakened global sentiment and reduced appetite for the copper-linked AI trade, weighing on the metal. However, as prospects for de-escalation improved, copper was well placed for a rally. Severe winter storms in Chile caused road closures, power outages and operational disruptions across several copper mines in the region. Further, continued delays to the planned announcement of changes to Section 232 tariffs saw COMEX inventories continue to build (+5.9%mth in July) in the US from already record highs, sending copper prices briefly above US$14,500/t. More structural support continues to come from ongoing investment in electricity networks and renewable energy capacity following the latest energy shock, while AI and data-centre investment is also buoying demand. That said, headwinds are continuing to build. Large US stockpiles suggest the market remains well supplied in the near term, while sulphuric acid prices – critical to copper production and closely linked to Gulf supply – have fallen substantially from recent highs. Chinese demand also remains subdued, with weakness in the construction sector continuing to weigh on activity. Against this backdrop, we expect copper to average US$13,800/t in Q3, and soften to an average of US$13,110/t in Q4.
Over the medium term, incremental mine supply is expected to place downward pressure on the market. However, structural electrification trends and manufacturing localisation should provide a floor under prices, with a trough of around US$11,500/t expected by end‑2028. Beyond this point, prices are expected to strengthen as net‑zero targets approach, EV uptake gathers momentum, renewable deployment accelerates, and expanding data‑centre investment drives additional demand for energy generation and transmission infrastructure.
Aluminium market tightness compounded by rising alumina prices
Aluminium prices returned to growth through late July and into August after falling sharply in early July following the signing of the MoU between the US and Iran. The continued disruption to flows through the Strait has maintained upward pressure on the market, with the Gulf region accounting for around 9% of global smelting capacity and a considerably larger share of global trade. IAI statistics indicate GCC production remained 34.5%yr below June 2025 levels, while African production is also down 32.1%yr as the Mozal refinery in Mozambique remains under care and maintenance. Given the time‑ and capital‑intensive nature of restarting Gulf smelting capacity, combined with the ongoing loss of African supply from Mozal, we expect market tightness to persist through the remainder of 2026. Further support is likely to come from China, which accounted for 60% of global production in 2025, but increased output by just 1.8%yr in June. Production growth remains constrained by China’s capacity replacement policy, whereby any new capacity must be matched by the permanent closure of approved existing capacity, limiting overcapacity, energy consumption and pollution.
That said, we do not anticipate a full return of the war premium, with higher prices incentivising capacity restarts across Western markets while recently low and stable alumina costs have encouraged additional supply. More timely, however, alumina prices have risen through August, exceeding US$350/t, levels last seen in September 2025. The increase reflects Alcoa lowering its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200–300kt due to operational disruptions at one of its Western Australian refineries, while Alunorte, the world's largest alumina refinery outside China, continues to operate at around 50% capacity due to difficulties securing natural gas supply.
Against this backdrop, we expect aluminium prices to continue rising through the remainder of the September quarter, averaging US$3,310/t. Tight market conditions are expected to persist into Q1 2027 with prices forecast to peak at an average of US$3,400/t. From there, prices are set to ease as supply stabilises, Gulf smelting output returns to pre-war levels, and new Indonesian capacity comes online. Longer‑term support is expected to come from EV, grid infrastructure and data‑centre investment, while growing competition for power from data centres may constrain future smelting capacity expansion.
Recent energy shock to support lithium
The lithium market has transitioned towards a more balanced position from the oversupply environment of 2024–25, with spodumene (6% FOB Australia) prices stabilising in the US$2,000–3,000/t range. Spodumene prices continued to soften from their May highs, falling 6.3%mth in July as markets responded to easing geopolitical tensions, while a more stable price environment has encouraged mine restarts helping boost global supply. Despite this, the outlook remains constructive. Near‑term support is expected to persist as downstream users maintain lean inventory positions amid historic price volatility, while recent fuel insecurity continues to encourage investment in energy storage solutions. Additional support is likely to come from accelerating global EV adoption, with electric vehicles projected by the IEA to account for 28% of global sales in 2026 and displace 5mb/d of oil demand by 2030. Unlike earlier in the cycle, the EV market is now sufficiently mature for fuel price dynamics to influence purchasing decisions, with lower‑cost Chinese EVs gaining market share and accounting for 60% of global EV sales in 2025.
Over the medium to longer term, lithium demand is expected to remain underpinned by structural electrification trends. EVs will continue to be the primary source of demand, with sodium‑ion battery chemistries unlikely to meaningfully challenge lithium's dominance given their lower energy density and higher weight. Growth in battery energy storage systems is also expected to accelerate alongside expanding renewable generation, with the IEA identifying BESS as the fastest‑growing power technology at present. The increasing prevalence of data centres will also support demand for storage solutions as operators seek to alleviate transmission constraints and enable peak shaving. On the supply side, expanding production, particularly from Australia, should position the country to capitalise on growing global demand though this benefit will be felt through volumes rather than prices.
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